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NCAAF

Josiah Thomas

New Mexico State

Value call

Josiah Thomas (New Mexico State) has one live pick today: under 38.5 receiving yards that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
49 in 100
Predicted
37.9 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 48.9% · before adjusting for past results 50.6% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap -4.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats
Wed 21 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Josiah Thomas
under 38.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 38.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
LEANWins about 49 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.77 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josiah Thomas is Under 38.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 49%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:25PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf totals overs: 945 of 1,745 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards50.6%48.9%53.2%2.00+0.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Houston State Bearkats vs New Mexico State Aggies: Josiah Thomas Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Thursday 22 October 2026, Sam Houston State Bearkats host New Mexico State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Josiah Thomas Under 38.5 Receiving Yards. This wins if Josiah Thomas finishes with fewer than 38.5 receiving yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. That price was showing at FanDuel. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Oct 26 New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats Receiving Yards 38.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
01 Oct 26 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ New Mexico State Aggies Receiving Yards 28.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Josiah Thomas (New Mexico State) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josiah Thomas is Under 38.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats on Wednesday 21 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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