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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch Keller is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 94%, for a model edge of +3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 7:56AM UTC
MLB

Mitch Keller

PIT

+3.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1667 (1.06)
+3.1% Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 6 Sep, 10:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
97.4%
Implied Probability
94.3%
Model Edge
+3.1%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed97.4%94.3%1.03+3.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Mitch Keller's recent performance data strongly supports the bet on Over 2.5 hits allowed. Over his last five games, Keller's average hits allowed, both overall and at home, surpass the betting line of 2.5. His overall average hits allowed is 5.6, while at home it's slightly higher at 5.8. His performance against the Brewers is even more telling, with an average of 6.8 hits allowed. Additionally, Keller's innings pitched and outs averages suggest he's likely to be on the mound long enough to allow more than 2.5 hits. His current hit streaks, overall and at home, further underscore his tendency to allow hits. These statistics collectively indicate a high probability of Keller allowing more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game, making this bet a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2075%
O 1.560%
O 2.550%
O 3.540%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Mitch Keller MLB strikeouts: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak14L2090%
O 2.5100%
O 3.5100%
O 4.580%
O 5.560%
O 6.540%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Mitch Keller MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak8L2075%
O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%

Mitch Keller MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
2.6avg earned runs · L5
L2050%

Mitch Keller MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
16.8avg outs · L5
L2050%

Mitch Keller MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 16.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Mitch Keller (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch Keller is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday 6 September at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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