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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch Keller is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 90 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 90%, implied 63%, edge +26.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 2.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 3.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 26, 3:52PM UTC
MLB

Mitch Keller

MLB

+26.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 4.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+26.5% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Mon 27 Jul, 10:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 933 of 1,879 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
The Pirates placed Keller on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a right arm teres major muscle injury.
updated Aug 3, 10:33PM UTC · 22d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
90 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.7% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +26.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts89.7%—63.3%1.11+26.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Mitch Keller (NA) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-172)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Pirates take the field against the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Mitch Keller and his strikeout potential. While Keller has shown flashes of brilliance this season, the numbers tell a different story when it comes to facing Arizona. The Diamondbacks, with their aggressive approach, have been adept at making contact, ranking among the league's bottom teams in strikeout percentage. Furthermore, Keller's recent outings reveal a trend of underwhelming strikeout totals, averaging just over two strikeouts per game against teams like Arizona. With the Diamondbacks' hitters finding their groove and Keller facing a lineup that thrives on putting the ball in play, the under on 4.5 strikeouts feels like a savvy play. It’s not just about the surface stats; it’s about the matchup dynamics that favor a lower strikeout total in this intriguing duel at PNC Park.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Mitch Keller is averaging 5.6 hits, 0.4 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

5.6
Hits
0.4
HR
0.0
RBI
2.6
Runs
2.0
Walks
4.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Mitch Keller has gone over 1.5 SO in 60% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.560%
o2.540%
o3.540%
o4.520%
o5.510%
o6.510%
o7.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mitch Keller is averaging 5.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.8 in home games, including his recent form against MIL.

5.6
Hits · Overall
5.8
Hits · Home
6.8
Hits · vs MIL
0.4
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Home
0.6
HR · vs MIL
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates Pitcher - Strikeouts 4.5 Under -172 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch Keller is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch Keller is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.5% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday 27 July at PNC Park, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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