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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jose Caballero is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Jose Caballero

TBR

+3.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+3.7% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sun 28 Sep, 7:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.2%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases89.2%—85.5%1.12+3.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Jose Caballero (TBR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Jose Caballero in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice given his recent performance and current streaks. Caballero's overall average for stolen bases in the last five games is 0.4 and specifically on away games, it drops to 0.2. When playing against the Yankees, his stolen base average is even lower at 0. His current hit streak for away games is also at 0, indicating he's not in his best form when playing outside his home field. Furthermore, the Yankees have not caught any of the last five attempted steals, showing a strong defensive strategy that could limit Caballero's opportunities. These factors suggest a lower likelihood of Caballero stealing a base in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
0.8avg hits · L5
L2055%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%

Jose Caballero MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 0.8 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
1.2avg total bases · L5
O 1.550%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Jose Caballero MLB total bases: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.2 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1.8avg H+R+RBI · L5
L2055%

Jose Caballero MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.8 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg singles · L5

Jose Caballero MLB singles: averaging 0.4 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg doubles · L5

Jose Caballero MLB doubles: averaging 0.4 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5
O 0.530%

Jose Caballero MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg stolen bases · L5

Jose Caballero MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.4 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jose Caballero (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jose Caballero is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees on Sunday 28 September at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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