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The latest Bet Better model pick for Johan Rojas is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Johan Rojas

PHI

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -714 (1.14)
+2.1% Edge
Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 19 Jul, 10:05PM
OUT
Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
updated Jun 25, 7:25PM UTC · 25d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.8%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+2.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases89.8%—87.7%1.11+2.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Johan Rojas (PHI) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-714)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Johan Rojas for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is supported by his recent performance data. Rojas' last five games show a batting stolen bases average (SB Avg) of 0.2 overall and 0.4 at home, both of which are under the line of 0.5. Furthermore, when playing against the Los Angeles Angels, his stolen base average drops to zero. This suggests that Rojas is less likely to steal bases when facing this particular team. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, do not significantly influence his ability to steal bases. In addition, the average number of times he's been caught stealing (Avg Cs) is low, indicating that he doesn't often attempt to steal bases. Therefore, the data suggests that Rojas is unlikely to exceed the 0.5 stolen bases line in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
1.4avg hits · L5
L2055%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%

Johan Rojas MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.4 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.6avg total bases · L5
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Johan Rojas MLB total bases: averaging 1.6 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.8avg H+R+RBI · L5

Johan Rojas MLB hits + runs + rbis: averaging 2.8 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.2avg singles · L5

Johan Rojas MLB singles: averaging 1.2 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg doubles · L5

Johan Rojas MLB doubles: averaging 0.2 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg stolen bases · L5

Johan Rojas MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.2 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Johan Rojas (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Johan Rojas is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday 19 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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