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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:12AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 8 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 2.5 Team Total -185

The model graded 25 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $154 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 8 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win84.7%
The price says64.9%
Best price-185
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 2.5 High85% chance -185
Team Total Long-shot32% chance
Team Total Long-shot20% chance
Team Total High92% chance
Team Total Long-shot11% chance
Team Total High96% chance
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 76%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 95%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 92%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 5 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Strikeouts
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Walks
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 5 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
W3–2SDAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 6.

DatePittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 261Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1610Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 3008Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 29117Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1706Philadelphia Phillies
May 1606Philadelphia Phillies
May 15911Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 61014Philadelphia Phillies
Feb 2243Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Trea Turner. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Trea Turner (PHI) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Trea Turner for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is supported by his recent performances. Turner's overall average for stolen bases in the last five games is 0.4, which is less than the line of 0.5. Furthermore, when playing away, his stolen base average drops to zero. This trend continues when looking at his games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with an average of zero stolen bases. Additionally, there is no record of him being caught stealing in the last five games, indicating he is not taking risks on the bases. Despite having a current hit streak, his lack of stolen bases, especially when playing away, makes a strong case for an Under 0.5 bet.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 8 June 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 35 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 18–17 across the last 35 meetings · these games average 9.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies1–6Pittsburgh Pirates
1 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies10–6Philadelphia Phillies
30 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies8–0Philadelphia Phillies
29 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies7–11Pittsburgh Pirates
17 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–6Philadelphia Phillies
16 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–6Philadelphia Phillies
15 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–11Philadelphia Phillies
6 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates10–14Philadelphia Phillies
22 Feb 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
8 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 35 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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