Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:16PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 8 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 2.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 25 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $154 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 84.7%, fair odds 1.18, book price -185, model edge +19.7%. Tip-off Sun 8 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
8.5
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.0Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.0Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA3.0Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
Unlock every pick
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 4 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 2.

DatePittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 261Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1610Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 3008Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 29117Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Trea Turner. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Trea Turner (PHI) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Trea Turner for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is supported by his recent performances. Turner's overall average for stolen bases in the last five games is 0.4, which is less than the line of 0.5. Furthermore, when playing away, his stolen base average drops to zero. This trend continues when looking at his games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with an average of zero stolen bases. Additionally, there is no record of him being caught stealing in the last five games, indicating he is not taking risks on the bases. Despite having a current hit streak, his lack of stolen bases, especially when playing away, makes a strong case for an Under 0.5 bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 8 June 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.