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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 8 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 84.7%, fair odds 1.18, book price -185, model edge +19.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 8 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at PNC Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 2:06AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cristopher Sanchez PHI Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Trea Turner PHI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
5.3implied team total
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Trea Turner. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.</p>

Trea Turner (PHI) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Trea Turner for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is supported by his recent performances. Turner's overall average for stolen bases in the last five games is 0.4, which is less than the line of 0.5. Furthermore, when playing away, his stolen base average drops to zero. This trend continues when looking at his games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with an average of zero stolen bases. Additionally, there is no record of him being caught stealing in the last five games, indicating he is not taking risks on the bases. Despite having a current hit streak, his lack of stolen bases, especially when playing away, makes a strong case for an Under 0.5 bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 8 June 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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