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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game Picks
3
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Pittsburgh Pirates -5.5 (Spread)
For Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 39.1%, fair odds 2.56, book price +680, model edge +26.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 10:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Elly De La Cruz CIN Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Konnor Griffin Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Gonzales Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
5.4implied team total
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 5.4 runs per game (4-1) while Cincinnati Reds are at 3.6 (2-3); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Cincinnati Reds.

5.4
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Runs / game5.43.6
Hits / game7.43.2
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.81.6
Batter K / game3.83.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.42.8
Pitching K / game5.04.2
Walks allowed / game1.42.2
L5 record4-12-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.</p>

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-179)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-128)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-323)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -6.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates 7.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -5.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates 2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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