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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 6:02AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
3
Props graded
65.6%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 Spread +240

The model graded 23 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $340 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 65.6% across 32 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.7%
The price says29.4%
Best price+240
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 High67% chance +240
Spread High75% chance
Spread Lean58% chance
Spread Lean48% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Moneyline High82% chance
Spread High92% chance
Spread Long-shot30% chance
Spread High95% chance
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 92%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 · $100 returned $340

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Elly De La Cruz SSDay-to-day
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Chase Burns SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 2:07AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Elly De La Cruz CIN Batter - Hits
Konnor Griffin Batter - Hits
Nick Gonzales Batter - Hits

+ 3 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L54-1

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 3 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
3
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 3 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4STLAway
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5CHCAway
L5–17CHCAway
W10–8CHCAway
L1–3SFAway
W10–9SFAway

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 5.4 runs per game (4-1) while Cincinnati Reds are at 3.6 (2-3); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Cincinnati Reds.

5.4
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Runs / game5.43.6
Hits / game7.43.2
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.81.6
Batter K / game3.83.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.42.8
Pitching K / game5.04.2
Walks allowed / game1.42.2
L5 record4-12-3

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 5, Cincinnati Reds won 5.

DatePittsburgh PiratesCincinnati RedsWinner
Aug 2210Cincinnati Reds
Aug 141Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 3178Cincinnati Reds
Jul 3023Cincinnati Reds
Jun 2894Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 2779Cincinnati Reds
Jun 2646Cincinnati Reds
May 310Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2177Pittsburgh Pirates
May 191Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Elly De La Cruz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-179)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
32
Total Picks
65.6%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +2.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Sunday 28 June 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 65.6% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 51 meetings on record
Pittsburgh Pirates 28–23 across the last 51 meetings · these games average 8.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds10–2Cincinnati Reds
1 Aug 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds1–4Pittsburgh Pirates
31 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds8–7Cincinnati Reds
30 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds3–2Cincinnati Reds
28 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–4Pittsburgh Pirates
27 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates7–9Cincinnati Reds
26 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–6Cincinnati Reds
3 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates1–0Pittsburgh Pirates
2 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates17–7Pittsburgh Pirates
1 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–1Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 51 meetings on file.

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