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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 9:12PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
3
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Pittsburgh Pirates -5.5 (Spread)
The model graded 23 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $780 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 39.1%, fair odds 2.56, book price +680, model edge +26.3%. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:35PM at PNC Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates
-5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:23AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Elly De La Cruz CIN Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Konnor Griffin Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Gonzales Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 3 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
3
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7WSHAway
L2–8WSHAway
L3–5WSHAway
W6–5ATHHome
W3–2ATHHome

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 5.4 runs per game (4-1) while Cincinnati Reds are at 3.6 (2-3); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Cincinnati Reds.

5.4
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
3.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds
Runs / game5.43.6
Hits / game7.43.2
Home runs / game1.00.4
Walks drawn / game0.81.6
Batter K / game3.83.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.42.8
Pitching K / game5.04.2
Walks allowed / game1.42.2
L5 record4-12-3

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 2, Cincinnati Reds won 5.

DatePittsburgh PiratesCincinnati RedsWinner
Aug 2210Cincinnati Reds
Aug 141Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 3178Cincinnati Reds
Jul 3023Cincinnati Reds
Jun 2894Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 2779Cincinnati Reds
Jun 2646Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Nick Lodolo SPOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-179)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates -5.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Pittsburgh Pirates +3.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Sunday 28 June 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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