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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Irvin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 94%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Jake Irvin

WSN

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1667 (1.06)
+1.4% Edge
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sun 21 Sep, 5:40PM
OUT
Irvin (shoulder) struck out five and allowed one hit and no walks over 4.2 scoreless innings Sunday in a rehab start with Double-A Harrisburg.
updated Jul 20, 12:08AM UTC · 1d old
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Model Probability
95.7%
Implied Probability
94.3%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.7%—94.3%1.04+1.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jake Irvin (WSN) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jake Irvin for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is backed by his recent performance data. On average, Irvin has allowed 4.8 hits per game overall and 4.2 hits when playing away. This is significantly higher than the line of 2.5. Additionally, when facing the Mets, his average hits allowed increases to 5. Furthermore, Irvin is currently on an 8-game streak of allowing hits, which extends to 11 games when playing away. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he generally stays in the game long enough to give up more than 2.5 hits. This consistent pattern of performance indicates a high probability that he will allow over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Mets.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.560%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%

Jake Irvin MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak8L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.570%
O 4.540%
O 5.530%
O 6.540%

Jake Irvin MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.550%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Jake Irvin MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
2.4avg earned runs · L5
L2055%

Jake Irvin MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
17.6avg outs · L5
Streak3L2060%

Jake Irvin MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jake Irvin (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Irvin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Nationals vs New York Mets on Sunday 21 September at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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