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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
New York Mets

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul 2025, 8:10PM
2
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets (Moneyline)
For New York Yankees vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 52.8%, fair odds 1.89, book price +123, model edge +8.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Jul 2025, 8:10PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Starling Marte NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Carlos Rodon NYY Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs New York YankeesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.8implied team total
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs New York Yankees L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

New York Yankees vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while New York Yankees are at 3.2 (2-3); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for New York Yankees.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.43.2
Hits / game8.27.8
Home runs / game1.41.2
Walks drawn / game3.03.4
Batter K / game6.09.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.63.2
Pitching K / game10.66.0
Walks allowed / game3.23.6
L5 record4-12-3

New York Yankees @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: New York Mets vs New York Yankees. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Lindor has been consistently hitting above the line, with an average of 1.8 hits in his last five overall and home games. This demonstrates his ability to perform well in familiar settings. His average against the Yankees is slightly lower at 1.6, but still well above the line. Furthermore, Lindor is currently on a hitting streak, with three consecutive overall hits and five home hits, indicating he's in good form. His plate appearances also provide ample opportunities for hits, averaging 4.6 at home and 5 against the Yankees. These statistics suggest a high probability of Lindor achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees : New York Mets Win (+126)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The New York Mets are a solid bet for this match based on their recent performance data. Their overall record in the last five games is 4-1, which is identical to their home record, suggesting a strong home advantage. Additionally, their record against the Yankees in recent matches is positive at 3-2. The Mets have also been outscoring the Yankees, with an average of 4.4 runs per game compared to the Yankees' 3.2. Defensively, the Mets are stronger as well, allowing an average of 2.6 runs per game, while the Yankees have been allowing 3.4. These stats indicate that the Mets are in better form, both offensively and defensively, making them a good bet for this game.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees : New York Mets Win (+123)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The New York Mets are a solid bet for the Moneyline market against the New York Yankees. The Mets have a strong recent record, winning 4 out of their last 5 games overall and at home. In contrast, the Yankees have been struggling, with a lower average of runs scored in their last 5 games, at 3.2 compared to the Mets' 4.4. The Mets also have a stronger defensive record recently, allowing an average of 2.6 runs in their last 5 games, while the Yankees have allowed an average of 3.4. Furthermore, the Mets have had the upper hand in recent head-to-head matchups, winning 3 out of the last 5 games against the Yankees. These factors suggest a higher probability for a Mets victory.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 5 July 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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