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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
New York Mets

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 6:27AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul 2025, 8:10PM
2
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline +123

The model graded 8 markets for New York Yankees vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $223 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Jul 2025, 8:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win52.8%
The price says44.8%
Best price+123
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New York Mets Lean53% chance +123
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 77%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • George Lombard Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Ryan McMahon 3BOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut

Probable pitcher

Elmer Rodriguez SP

New York Mets

  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP
Availability updated Sep 1, 1:38AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Batter - Stolen Bases
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases
Starling Marte NYM Batter - Stolen Bases
Carlos Rodon NYY Pitcher - Walks

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs New York YankeesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
0.6runs we expect
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs New York Yankees L51-4

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for New York Yankees at New York Mets — 2 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–2TBAway
L3–6HOUHome
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W16–1BOSHome
W9–2BOSHome
L0–6BOSHome
W1–0BOSHome
L1–5HOUHome

New York Yankees vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while New York Yankees are at 3.2 (2-3); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for New York Yankees.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.43.2
Hits / game8.27.8
Home runs / game1.41.2
Walks drawn / game3.03.4
Batter K / game6.09.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.63.2
Pitching K / game10.66.0
Walks allowed / game3.23.6
L5 record4-12-3

New York Yankees vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: New York Mets won 4, New York Yankees won 1.

DateNew York MetsNew York YankeesWinner
May 1776New York Mets
May 1663New York Mets
May 1525New York Yankees
Mar 8104New York Mets
Feb 2264New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Aaron Judge RFOUT
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan McMahon 3BOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ New York Mets — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: New York Mets vs New York Yankees. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Lindor has been consistently hitting above the line, with an average of 1.8 hits in his last five overall and home games. This demonstrates his ability to perform well in familiar settings. His average against the Yankees is slightly lower at 1.6, but still well above the line. Furthermore, Lindor is currently on a hitting streak, with three consecutive overall hits and five home hits, indicating he's in good form. His plate appearances also provide ample opportunities for hits, averaging 4.6 at home and 5 against the Yankees. These statistics suggest a high probability of Lindor achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Mets, or as Mets vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Saturday 5 July 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New York Mets 14–8 across the last 23 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
17 May 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets7–6New York Mets
16 May 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets6–3New York Mets
15 May 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets2–5New York Yankees
8 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets10–4New York Mets
22 Feb 2026New York Mets @ New York Yankees4–6New York Mets
6 Jul 2025New York Yankees @ New York Mets4–6New York Yankees
5 Jul 2025New York Yankees @ New York Mets12–6New York Mets
4 Jul 2025New York Yankees @ New York Mets6–5New York Mets
18 May 2025New York Mets @ New York Yankees8–2New York Yankees
17 May 2025New York Mets @ New York Yankees2–3New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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