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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
New York Mets

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:17PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul 2025, 8:10PM
2
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Mets (Moneyline)
The model graded 8 markets for New York Yankees vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $223 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 52.8%, fair odds 1.89, book price +123, model edge +8.0%. Tip-off Sat 5 Jul 2025, 8:10PM at Citi Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Starling Marte NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Carlos Rodon NYY Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2Free board6-6

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs New York YankeesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for New York Yankees at New York Mets — 2 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2ATLHome
W5–4ATLHome
W3–2ATLHome
L1–3STLHome
W2–0STLHome

New York Yankees vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while New York Yankees are at 3.2 (2-3); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for New York Yankees.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.43.2
Hits / game8.27.8
Home runs / game1.41.2
Walks drawn / game3.03.4
Batter K / game6.09.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.63.2
Pitching K / game10.66.0
Walks allowed / game3.23.6
L5 record4-12-3

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ New York Mets — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: New York Mets vs New York Yankees. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Lindor has been consistently hitting above the line, with an average of 1.8 hits in his last five overall and home games. This demonstrates his ability to perform well in familiar settings. His average against the Yankees is slightly lower at 1.6, but still well above the line. Furthermore, Lindor is currently on a hitting streak, with three consecutive overall hits and five home hits, indicating he's in good form. His plate appearances also provide ample opportunities for hits, averaging 4.6 at home and 5 against the Yankees. These statistics suggest a high probability of Lindor achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Mets, or as Mets vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Saturday 5 July 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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