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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Thu 18 Jun 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline)
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox (MLB), model win probability 55.5%, fair odds 1.80, book price -102, model edge +5.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 18 Jun 2026, 5:35PM at Fenway Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:58AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nathan Lukes TOR Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ernie Clement Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ceddanne Rafaela Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
4.3implied team total
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.2 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 4.2 (3-2); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 2.0 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for Toronto Blue Jays.

4.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
4.2
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game4.24.2
Hits / game7.06.0
Home runs / game1.21.0
Walks drawn / game2.22.6
Batter K / game3.64.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.02.0
Pitching K / game4.03.8
Walks allowed / game0.62.8
L5 record3-23-2

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays stats and odds.</p>

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+132)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 10 Total Runs (+150)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 9 Total Runs (+103)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-118)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-169)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays : Over 10.5 Total Runs (+172)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Jun 26 Spread Toronto Blue Jays -5 ✗ MISS
18 Jun 26 Spread Toronto Blue Jays -4.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jun 26 Spread Toronto Blue Jays -3 ✓ HIT
18 Jun 26 Moneyline Toronto Blue Jays ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 18 June 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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