On Saturday 26 September 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap, priced at -125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Liverpool vs Manchester City: Manchester City +0 Goal Handicap (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, the current form of both teams suggests an intriguing clash. Liverpool's inconsistency at home—marked by just a 2-3-0 record in their last five—contrasts sharply with City's flawless five-game winning streak away from home. In those matches, City has averaged an impressive 2.6 goals scored, while Liverpool has struggled to find the net with just 1.4 goals in their last five home games. City's attacking prowess is underscored by their xG of 0 in recent outings, indicating they’ve been clinical in converting chances. Liverpool, on the other hand, has seen their xG numbers stagnate. Given these trends, backing Manchester City with a 0 handicap seems wise; they’ve shown the ability to dominate in tough environments, and with Liverpool’s shaky form, City looks primed for a strong showing.

That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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