Callum Brown (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-303)

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Callum Brown is in the kind of form that makes a 0.5 goals line look thin. He's kicked at least one goal in seven straight games overall and is a perfect 3-from-3 at home this stretch, averaging 1.2 goals per home game across his last five — right in line with the model's projection of 1.3. That projection sits comfortably above the line, and while the 1.2% model edge is modest, the underlying numbers do the real convincing. At home he's generating 2.2 shots at goal per game with a 55% accuracy rate, backed by 1.2 marks inside 50 and 4.8 score involvements — a player who consistently gets into the action around the big sticks. West Coast's defence has been leaky enough to keep that threat alive. The implied probability is 75.2%; the model sees it closer to 80%. That gap is worth taking on a player this locked into form at his home ground.

Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Waterman's overall numbers make a compelling case here, even if his away form gives slight pause. His model projection sits at 2.2 goals — well clear of the 1.5 line — and his L5 overall average matches that exactly, with a 3/4 hit rate in his last four games and a two-game overall streak running. Crucially, his head-to-head record against GWS is encouraging: a 2.2 goals average across all matchups, and even his away-specific record against the Giants sits at 1.5, right on the line. The concern is his L5 away goal accuracy of just 28% against a healthier 51.4% overall, though he's compensating with volume — 5.4 shots at goal and 3.4 marks inside 50 in away games. That's enough ball in dangerous positions to expect two majors. The model edge is razor-thin at 0.1%, so sizing accordingly is wise, but the underlying numbers support the over.

Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Coniglio is in the kind of goal-scoring form that makes a line of 0.5 look genuinely thin. He's kicked at least one goal in each of his last four outings, including three straight at home, and his L5 home average of 1.0 goal per game sits comfortably above the bar. The model projects him at 0.9 goals with a 1.8% edge over the implied probability of 65.4%, which isn't a screaming margin but it's a real one — and the underlying numbers support it firmly. His L5 home shots-at-goal average of 1.6 and a 55% goal accuracy at home combine to make clearing 0.5 a reasonable expectation most weeks. Broadly, his overall shots average lifts to 2.2 with 70% accuracy, suggesting the home numbers slightly understate his true output. West Coast concede freely, ENGIE Stadium suits the Giants' inside-50 game, and Coniglio's current streak gives this genuine substance.

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