Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-270)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to face the Dallas Mavericks, the spotlight is on Nikola Jokic, where the smart play is targeting him for under 12.5 assists. While Jokic is undoubtedly an elite playmaker, recent trends suggest he might not hit that lofty mark tonight. At home, he's averaging just 11 assists over his last five games, and against the Mavericks, that number dips to 10.8. Given that Dallas often tightens its defensive schemes, Jokic's assist average against them sits around 11.2, further hinting at a challenging matchup. With the Nuggets' offensive flow potentially shifting and Jokic's typical distribution being slightly muted, it's reasonable to expect he'll finish below that 12.5 threshold. With an implied probability of 73% for this under bet, it's a calculated risk that feels more like a sure thing. As they say, in basketball, numbers sometimes tell a different story than the headlines.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 25.5 Rebounds + Assists (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Nuggets prepare to host the Mavericks, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but it might be wise to lean toward the under on his combined rebounds and assists total of 25.5. While Jokic is a stat machine, averaging a robust 12 rebounds and 12.6 assists over his last five games, the matchup against Dallas tells a different story. At home, his numbers dip slightly to 9.8 boards and 11 assists, suggesting he might not hit those lofty totals. Moreover, the Mavericks typically challenge him; in their recent encounters, Jokic has averaged 15.6 rebounds and 10.8 assists at home, just shy of that 25.5 mark. With a solid hit rate of 7 out of 8 at home recently, there's a compelling case for him to fall a bit short in this spot. In a game where defenses will tighten, betting the under feels like a savvy move.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 9.5 Rebounds (-385)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Dallas Mavericks gear up to face the Denver Nuggets, all eyes will be on rookie sensation Cooper Flagg. However, with the line set at 9.5 rebounds, we're leaning towards the under. Flagg has been solid lately, averaging 6.6 rebounds over his last five games, but that number dips to just 6 when facing Denver. Even more telling is his away performance, where he's pulling down just 7.8 boards per game. Given that he's hit the under in an impressive 13 of his last 15 games, and has found himself under this line in all three of his most recent away contests, there's a compelling case here. The Nuggets are a tough rebounding team, and with his expected stat value sitting at 6.42, it feels right to bank on Flagg coming up short of that 9.5 mark.

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