On Sunday 6 September 2026, Aston Villa play Nottingham Forest in the EPL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Under 6.5 Total Goals, priced at -10000 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Under 6.5 Total Goals (-10000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Aston Villa prepares to host Nottingham Forest, the stage is set for a clash that suggests a lack of fireworks. Villa's recent home form reveals an average of just 2.2 goals scored while conceding 1.6 per game, and their xG numbers reflect a consistent struggle to break the two-goal barrier. Meanwhile, Forest, unable to find their footing away from home, average just one goal scored and have been held to fewer than two goals in four of their last five matches. The last encounters between these sides have also leaned towards low-scoring affairs, with Villa winning three of the last five but rarely in high-scoring fashion. With both teams underwhelming in attack lately, expecting fewer than 6.5 goals seems the smart play.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest +3.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Aston Villa welcomes Nottingham Forest, recent trends suggest a compelling case for Nottingham to cover the -3.5 handicap. Despite Villa's home advantage, their form has been inconsistent, managing just two wins in the last five at home, and averaging a modest 2.2 goals scored per game. Meanwhile, Nottingham, despite their own struggles, has shown resilience with a stronger away record, scoring three goals in their last five away games. What’s intriguing is how both teams have struggled to convert chances lately, with their xG metrics failing to impress—indicating a possible underperformance in front of goal. However, Aston Villa's leaky defense is a concern, particularly when facing a Nottingham side that has found the net more consistently on the road. With the stakes high, look for Nottingham to exploit any defensive lapses and potentially secure a comfortable scoreline, making that -3.5 handicap a savvy play.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Aston Villa +2.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
As Aston Villa prepares to host Nottingham Forest, the momentum clearly favors the Villans. Villa's recent home form is solid, with a 3-0-2 record in their last five at home and an average of 2.2 goals scored. Meanwhile, Forest has struggled away, managing only one win in their last five, and their scoring woes are evident, averaging just 1 goal per match. When looking at the expected goals (xG) metrics, Villa boasts a stronger attacking threat, consistently outshooting opponents and creating more chances. With their recent head-to-head record standing at 3-1-1, it’s clear Villa has the upper hand. Given these trends and their offensive prowess, taking Aston Villa to win with a 2.5 goal handicap feels like a savvy bet that capitalizes on their current form, while Forest's struggles could see them overwhelmed once again.
That is how our model reads Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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