Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zane Duursma is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:53PM UTC
AFL

Zane Duursma

North Melbourne

+2.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -238 (1.42)
+2.4% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.8%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+2.4%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals72.8%—70.4%1.37+2.4%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Zane Duursma (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Zane Duursma's recent form, he's been a consistent threat away from home, averaging 1.2 goals over the last five games. With an impressive 40% goal accuracy and 2.6 shots at goal per game in away fixtures, Duursma has been actively involved in North Melbourne's scoring opportunities. Facing Port Adelaide, who he hasn't faced much recently, Duursma will look to capitalize on his form and make an impact on the scoreboard. Moreover, his average of 1 mark inside 50 and 4.6 score involvements per game demonstrate his ability to create and finish attacking plays. Duursma's goal-scoring ability aligns well with the Over 0.5 line, making him a prime candidate to snag a goal in this matchup. With a 2.4% model edge supporting the Over, Duursma looks set to continue his scoring trend away against Port Adelaide.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.7avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.7 · hi 2 · lo 0
1002011200

Zane Duursma has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Zane Duursma (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zane Duursma is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 5 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks