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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Reid is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 69%, edge +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:45AM UTC
AFL

Zach Reid

Essendon

+2.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
+2.2% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 13°C (Aug 2022). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
15.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.7% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +2.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.7%69.4%1.40+2.2%

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AI Analysis

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Zach Reid (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Zach Reid is the man to watch in the Essendon vs. Melbourne clash. Playing in front of the home crowd at Adelaide Oval, Reid has been a shining star in recent games. With an average of 15.6 disposals in his last five home games and a stellar disposal efficiency of 88.1%, he's been a midfield maestro for the Bombers. Facing Melbourne, against whom he's averaged 21 disposals in his last five outings, Reid is poised to shine once again. His ability to find space, rack up kicks, and intercept play makes him a reliable option to surpass the line of 12.5 disposals. With his current form and the home advantage, Reid is primed to deliver for punters looking to bank on his ball-winning prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent game log

In his most recent game (16 Mar 24 vs Hawthorn), Zach Reid recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
16 Mar 24Hawthorn3021
20 Aug 22Richmond7030
10 Jun 22Carlton4002
29 May 22Port Adelaide6002
21 May 22Richmond12033
14 May 22Sydney Swans130102
7 May 22Hawthorn9043
1 May 22Western Bulldogs8034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Zach Reid (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Reid is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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