Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Reid is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Zach Reid

Essendon

+2.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -227 (1.44)
+2.2% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+2.2%
Predicted Value
15.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.7%—69.4%1.40+2.2%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Zach Reid (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Zach Reid is the man to watch in the Essendon vs. Melbourne clash. Playing in front of the home crowd at Adelaide Oval, Reid has been a shining star in recent games. With an average of 15.6 disposals in his last five home games and a stellar disposal efficiency of 88.1%, he's been a midfield maestro for the Bombers. Facing Melbourne, against whom he's averaged 21 disposals in his last five outings, Reid is poised to shine once again. His ability to find space, rack up kicks, and intercept play makes him a reliable option to surpass the line of 12.5 disposals. With his current form and the home advantage, Reid is primed to deliver for punters looking to bank on his ball-winning prowess.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.4avg disposals L5
Home15vs GWS GIANTS9Season best13
O 12.550%
O 13.540%
O 14.530%
O 15.530%
O 16.520%
O 17.510%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)avg 7.8 · hi 13 · lo 3
8913126473

Zach Reid has gone over 14.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.4 disposals, best 13).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 12.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 11.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 12.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Zach Reid (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Reid is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks