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AFL

Zach Reid

Essendon

+0.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -244 (1.41)
+0.7% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+0.7%
Predicted Value
15.4 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Zach Reid (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the Essendon vs. Melbourne clash, Zach Reid stands out as a prime candidate to shine. Playing on home turf at Adelaide Oval, Reid has been on a tear lately, averaging 15.6 disposals over his last five home games, comfortably surpassing the set line of 12.5. His recent form is impressive, with a stellar 88.1% disposal efficiency and 10 kicks per game, showcasing both precision and aggression. Facing Melbourne, a team he's historically collected 21 disposals per game against, Reid's poised to maintain his dominance. With his current hot streak of four consecutive hits at home and an overall hit rate of 7 out of the last 9 games, Reid looks primed to meet and exceed the expectations once again. Betting on Reid to go over 12.5 disposals seems like a solid wager backed by his recent performances and historical success against the upcoming opponent.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (12 picks) 75.0% (9/12)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 12.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 11.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 10.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Zach Reid (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 12 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 75.0% (9/12). The latest model pick for Zach Reid is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.7% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.