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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Taylor is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 2, 12:50PM UTC
AFL

Zac Taylor

Adelaide Crows

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -286 (1.35)
+0.6% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
74.6%
Implied Probability
74.1%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
13.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.6%74.1%1.34+0.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Zac Taylor (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Zac Taylor is the man to watch as the Adelaide Crows take on Collingwood Magpies at the Adelaide Oval. Taylor has been on a tear lately, with an average of 14 disposals over his last five home games. His recent form is solid, showing a high level of efficiency with a 75.3% disposal rate and an impressive 176 meters gained on average. Facing Collingwood, Taylor has historically performed even better, averaging 8.7 disposals against them in his last five matchups. With his knack for finding the footy and making an impact, Taylor is well-positioned to surpass the 10.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. Backing him to hit the over seems like a smart play given his consistency and recent dominance, making him a key player to watch in this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 12.5
12.2avg disposals L5
Away13.2vs Essendon17Season best18
O 10.580%
O 11.570%
O 12.550%
O 13.550%
O 14.550%
O 15.530%
Game log vs line (O 12.5)avg 9.9 · hi 18 · lo 3
4618179143513

Zac Taylor has gone over 12.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 12.2 disposals, best 18).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 10.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 10.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Zac Taylor (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Taylor is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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