Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tristan Xerri is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Tristan Xerri

North Melbourne

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -333 (1.30)
+1.6% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
78.5%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+1.6%
Predicted Value
18.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.5%—76.9%1.27+1.6%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tristan Xerri (North Melbourne) Over 14.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tristan Xerri is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against Port Adelaide. Over his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 19.8 disposals. Facing Port previously, he's elevated his game even further, notching an impressive 23 disposals on average. Xerri's ability to find the footy, coupled with his solid disposal efficiency of 66.6%, makes him a reliable pick to surpass the 14.5 disposal mark. His knack for contested possessions (16 avg) and knack for creating plays (3 intercepts avg) bode well for him to assert his presence on the field. With a track record boasting a hit rate of 10/13 and a current away hit streak of 5/6, Xerri is a strong bet to deliver on the over in this showdown.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.5avg disposals recent
Season best30
Disposals last 10avg 20.5 · hi 30 · lo 16
17201718162520301725

Tristan Xerri has a disposals high of 30 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 13.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Tristan Xerri (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tristan Xerri is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 5 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks