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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Powell is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +7.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Tom Powell

North Melbourne

+7.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -167 (1.60)
+7.6% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
70.1%
Implied Probability
62.5%
Model Edge
+7.6%
Predicted Value
21.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%—62.5%1.43+7.6%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Powell (North Melbourne) Over 18.5 Disposals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Powell is poised to shine at Marvel Stadium when the North Melbourne Kangaroos clash with the Richmond Tigers. Over his last five home games, Powell has been a midfield maestro, boasting an average of 17.6 disposals per game. Against Richmond specifically, he elevates his game even further, averaging 20 disposals. With a model predicting him to hit 21.1 disposals and strong recent form with a 2-game hit streak at home, Powell's reliability is evident. His ability to find space, efficient ball use at 70.5%, and knack for gaining meters make him a prime candidate to surpass the 18.5 disposal line set by the bookies. Powell's consistent performance and matchup history against the Tigers make him a compelling pick for this over/under market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.7avg disposals recent
Season best34
Disposals last 10avg 19.7 · hi 34 · lo 8
1822221511342126208

Tom Powell has a disposals high of 34 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 18.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 17.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Powell (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Powell is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.6% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 19 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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