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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Liberatore is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 9:26AM UTC
AFL

Tom Liberatore

Western Bulldogs

Value call

Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 22.5 that pays $163 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -159 (1.63) · $100→$163
Value call
Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 3 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
25.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.2% · the book's price implies 61.3% · gap +11.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%61.3%1.37+11.8%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) Over 22.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the over on disposals in the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and the Sydney Swans, Tom Liberatore is the man to watch. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 23.2 disposals over the last five away games. With his knack for finding the footy and racking up kicks (12.4 per game), Liberatore poses a constant threat to opposition defenses. Moreover, facing the Swans, he has historically upped his game, averaging 24.2 disposals in their previous encounters. His ability to read the play and generate turnovers (2.8 per game) showcases his defensive impact as well. Combine this with his current hit streak and overall hit rate, and Liberatore looks primed to not just meet but exceed the 22.5 disposals line come game day at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Liberatore averaged 23.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

23.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.8
Marks
5.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Tom Liberatore recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn25034
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24105
18 Aug 24North Melbourne23036
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows24038
2 Aug 24Melbourne19028
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans22025
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats23027
13 Jul 24Carlton20024
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide22025
29 Jun 24North Melbourne25154
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 22.5 Over -159 ✗ MISS
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 21.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Liberatore is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans on Friday 3 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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