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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Liberatore is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 85%, implied 76%, edge +8.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 12:05PM UTC
AFL

Tom Liberatore

Western Bulldogs

+8.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
+8.3% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 3 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
25.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.6% · the book's price implies 76.3% · gap +8.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.6%—76.3%1.18+8.3%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) Over 20.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to gritty midfielders who thrive in contested situations, Tom Liberatore is a prime pick. In his last five away games, Liberatore has been a disposal machine, averaging an impressive 23.2 touches per match. His recent clash with the upcoming opponent, the Sydney Swans, saw him notch up 24.2 disposals. With a knack for finding the footy both in the clinches and in open play, Liberatore's consistency is evident with an overall hit rate of 15/16. Even amidst the roar of the SCG, Liberatore's ability to read the play, win contested possessions, and drive his team forward should see him comfortably surpass the 20.5 disposal mark. Bet confidently on Liberatore to rack up the possessions in this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Liberatore averaged 23.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

23.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.8
Marks
5.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Tom Liberatore recorded 25 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn25034
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24105
18 Aug 24North Melbourne23036
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows24038
2 Aug 24Melbourne19028
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans22025
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats23027
13 Jul 24Carlton20024
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide22025
29 Jun 24North Melbourne25154
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Liberatore is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.3% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Swans on Friday 3 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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