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AFL

Tom Green

GWS GIANTS

+14.1% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 28.5 -125 (1.80)
+14.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney
Sun 24 Aug, 2:20AM
Model Probability
69.7%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+14.1%
Predicted Value
25.9 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Tom Green (GWS GIANTS) Under 28.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Green is likely to go under 28.5 disposals based on his recent performance. Despite facing St Kilda, where he averages 26 disposals in L5 matchups, his overall L5 average sits at 25. Tom's recent form at home shows he averages 25.4 disposals, just under the line. His L5 stats also reveal a turnover average of 2.8, indicating occasional ball control issues. With a model predicting him at 25.9 disposals and a 14.1% edge, the under bet seems favorable. Tom's hit rate of 3/4 in the last four games suggests consistency but not surpassing the line. Considering these factors, the under on Tom Green's disposals is a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (21 picks) 90.5% (19/21)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Aug 25 St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 28.5 Under -125 ✗ MISS
24 Aug 25 St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 28.5 Under -125 ✗ MISS
14 Jun 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 24.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
14 Jun 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
07 Jun 25 Port Adelaide Power @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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