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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Green is Under 28.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +14.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Tom Green

GWS GIANTS

+14.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 28.5 -125 (1.80)
+14.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug, 2:20AM
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Model Probability
69.7%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+14.1%
Predicted Value
25.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals69.7%—55.6%1.44+14.1%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Green (GWS GIANTS) Under 28.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Green is likely to go under 28.5 disposals based on his recent performance. Despite facing St Kilda, where he averages 26 disposals in L5 matchups, his overall L5 average sits at 25. Tom's recent form at home shows he averages 25.4 disposals, just under the line. His L5 stats also reveal a turnover average of 2.8, indicating occasional ball control issues. With a model predicting him at 25.9 disposals and a 14.1% edge, the under bet seems favorable. Tom's hit rate of 3/4 in the last four games suggests consistency but not surpassing the line. Considering these factors, the under on Tom Green's disposals is a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
33.2avg disposals recent
Season best40
Disposals last 10avg 33.2 · hi 40 · lo 25
33373433252840373233

Tom Green has a disposals high of 40 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom Green (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Green is Under 28.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.1% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 24 August at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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