Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Green is Under 28.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 56%, edge +14.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:41PM UTC
AFL

Tom Green

GWS GIANTS

+14.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 28.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+14.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug, 2:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
25.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 69.7% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap +14.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals69.7%55.6%1.44+14.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tom Green (GWS GIANTS) Under 28.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Green is likely to go under 28.5 disposals based on his recent performance. Despite facing St Kilda, where he averages 26 disposals in L5 matchups, his overall L5 average sits at 25. Tom's recent form at home shows he averages 25.4 disposals, just under the line. His L5 stats also reveal a turnover average of 2.8, indicating occasional ball control issues. With a model predicting him at 25.9 disposals and a 14.1% edge, the under bet seems favorable. Tom's hit rate of 3/4 in the last four games suggests consistency but not surpassing the line. Considering these factors, the under on Tom Green's disposals is a solid bet.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Green averaged 30.8 disposals, 0.4 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

30.8
Disposals
0.4
Goals
3.0
Marks
4.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Green recorded 33 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions33115
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans32010
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs37120
17 Aug 24Fremantle40035
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions28053
4 Aug 24Hawthorn25122
27 Jul 24Melbourne33151
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS34047
14 Jul 24Richmond37037
6 Jul 24Carlton33145
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Tom Green (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Green is Under 28.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.1% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 24 August at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.