Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Taylor Duryea is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 9:28AM UTC
AFL
Taylor Duryea
Western Bulldogs
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.5% Edge
Western Bulldogs
@
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 3 Jul, 9:30AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Implied Probability
80.0%
Predicted Value
14.2 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 82.5% | — | 80.0% | 1.21 | +2.5% |
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Taylor Duryea (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Taylor Duryea is poised to excel against North Melbourne based on his recent form. With a solid average of 13.2 disposals in his last five away games and facing a favorable matchup where he has historically averaged 13 disposals, Duryea is likely to surpass the 9.5 line. His consistent handballing ability (4.2 avg) and efficient play (73.4% disposal efficiency) further support this bet. Additionally, his strong metres gained (222.6 avg) and intercepts (4 avg) showcase his impact on the game. With a 80.0% implied probability and a 2.5% edge according to the model, betting on Duryea to go over 9.5 disposals seems a prudent choice given his recent performances and historical success against this opponent.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 14.3avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 14.3 · hi 20 · lo 7
Taylor Duryea has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Taylor Duryea (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Taylor Duryea is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Thursday 3 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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