Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Taylor Duryea is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 80%, edge +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:14AM UTC
AFL
Taylor Duryea
Western Bulldogs
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.5% Edge
Western Bulldogs
@
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 3 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
82 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 82.5% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +2.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 82.5% | — | 80.0% | 1.21 | +2.5% |
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Taylor Duryea (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Taylor Duryea is poised to excel against North Melbourne based on his recent form. With a solid average of 13.2 disposals in his last five away games and facing a favorable matchup where he has historically averaged 13 disposals, Duryea is likely to surpass the 9.5 line. His consistent handballing ability (4.2 avg) and efficient play (73.4% disposal efficiency) further support this bet. Additionally, his strong metres gained (222.6 avg) and intercepts (4 avg) showcase his impact on the game. With a 80.0% implied probability and a 2.5% edge according to the model, betting on Duryea to go over 9.5 disposals seems a prudent choice given his recent performances and historical success against this opponent.
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Season averages (2024)
Taylor Duryea averaged 14.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Taylor Duryea recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 6 Sep 24 | Hawthorn | 11 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 25 Aug 24 | GWS GIANTS | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 Aug 24 | North Melbourne | 20 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 12 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Sydney Swans | 15 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | 15 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Carlton | 18 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Port Adelaide | 16 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | North Melbourne | 7 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Taylor Duryea (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Taylor Duryea is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Thursday 3 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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