Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sean Darcy is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On the Marks market the model assigns a model win probability of 56%, versus the book's implied 47%, for a model edge of +9.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 4:42AM UTC
AFL

Sean Darcy

Fremantle

+9.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 +115 (2.15) · $100→$215
+9.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 14 Aug, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 13°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
55.9%
Implied Probability
46.5%
Model Edge
+9.4%
Predicted Value
1.7 Marks

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks55.9%—46.5%1.79+9.4%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sean Darcy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (+115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to aerial dominance, Sean Darcy stands tall among the rest. His ability to pluck marks in crucial areas has been a game-changer for the Fremantle Dockers, especially at home. Over his last five home games, Darcy has been a marking machine, averaging 1.2 marks overall and 0.4 marks inside 50. Facing the Adelaide Crows, a team he's historically feasted upon with an average of 2 marks per game, the stage is set for Darcy to shine under the Perth lights at Optus Stadium. With his recent form and matchup advantage, taking the Over 1.5 marks for Sean Darcy is a wager backed by his consistent performances and the statistical edge he holds in this game. Expect Darcy to soar above the pack and deliver for those backing his aerial prowess.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sean Darcy averaged 12.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 1.6 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

12.4
Disposals
0.5
Goals
1.6
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sean Darcy has cleared 9.5 disposals in 30% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.530%
o10.520%
o11.520%
o12.50%
o13.50%
o14.50%
o15.50%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sean Darcy is averaging 6.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

6.8
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs Essendon), Sean Darcy recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
4 Aug 24Essendon12021
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12022
21 Jul 24Melbourne16030
6 Jul 24Richmond7011
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans9102
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS20123
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs12005
2 Jun 24Melbourne14114
24 May 24Collingwood13104
5 May 24Richmond10232
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Sean Darcy (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sean Darcy is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 14 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.