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AFL

Sam Switkowski

Fremantle

Value call

Sam Switkowski (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 11.5 disposals that pays $156 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
13.9 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.8% · before adjusting for past results 71.3% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap -4.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Sam Switkowski
over 11.5 disposals
Disposals Over 11.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.60 Odds-179
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Switkowski is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 64%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 7:56PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.3%59.8%64.1%1.67+7.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sam Switkowski Over 11.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds on Sam Switkowski getting over 11.5 disposals look promising. Our numbers show he has been involved in a lot of plays lately, with clearances and contest wins well above average. This suggests he'll have plenty of opportunities to rack up those disposals against the Sydney Swans. The main risk here is that both teams are closely matched, which could lead to a more defensive game. However, Switkowski's recent form points to him being a key player, so he should be able to reach that target. It could be tight, but the signs are good for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Switkowski averaged 14.5 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

14.5
Disposals
0.6
Goals
3.2
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Switkowski has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.590%
o11.570%
o12.560%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Switkowski is averaging 12.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.4
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Sam Switkowski recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide22144
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13106
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats19073
4 Aug 24Essendon16053
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles16232
21 Jul 24Melbourne12013
13 Jul 24Hawthorn11116
6 Jul 24Richmond14137
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans17156
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS14048
Quick answers:How many disposals does Sam Switkowski average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 10.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Switkowski (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Switkowski is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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