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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Switkowski is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 83%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 26, 11:07AM UTC
AFL

Sam Switkowski

Fremantle

Value call

Sam Switkowski (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 9.5 that pays $120 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
13.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.5% · before adjusting for past results 84.8% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap -9.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.8%73.5%83.3%1.36+1.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sam Switkowski Over 9.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Sam Switkowski to get over 9.5 disposals look pretty good, especially since our numbers see him as a strong favorite. He's been playing well lately, and Fremantle has also been winning a lot, which means he should get plenty of chances to rack up those disposals. The Sydney Swans have been scoring big, averaging over 57 points before half-time in their last 12 games, so there will be lots of action on the field. One thing to consider is how close these teams are in terms of form, with both winning 7 of their last 10 games. Even though Switkowski is likely to get his chances, it's always possible that he might not find the ball as much if the match turns out differently than expected.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Switkowski averaged 14.5 disposals, 0.6 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

14.5
Disposals
0.6
Goals
3.2
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Switkowski has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.590%
o11.570%
o12.560%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Switkowski is averaging 12.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.4
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Sam Switkowski recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide22144
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13106
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats19073
4 Aug 24Essendon16053
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles16232
21 Jul 24Melbourne12013
13 Jul 24Hawthorn11116
6 Jul 24Richmond14137
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans17156
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS14048
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 10.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -189 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Switkowski (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Switkowski is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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