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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Davidson is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:41AM UTC
AFL

Sam Davidson

Western Bulldogs

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+4.5% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
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Model Probability
72.5%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
13.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%—68.0%1.38+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Davidson (Western Bulldogs) Over 10.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Davidson is poised to set the footy field ablaze in the upcoming clash against the Geelong Cats. Averaging 9.2 disposals in his last five away games, he's been a consistent force in the midfield. His recent form is solid, with 14 disposals in his last five encounters against the Cats, indicating he thrives in this matchup. With a knack for finding space and racking up kicks (5.4 avg), Davidson's disposal efficiency of 63.0% showcases his ability to make every possession count. Having hit a streak of 2 games exceeding 10.5 disposals, and boasting an impressive hit rate of 8/11 in away games, Davidson is primed to dominate the contest and surpass the line set by sportsbet. Betting on him to snag over 10.5 disposals is a calculated move backed by his recent performance and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Sam Davidson - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Davidson (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Davidson is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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