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AFL

Sam Darcy

Western Bulldogs

+1.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -385 (1.26)
+1.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sun 24 Aug, 5:15AM
Model Probability
81.0%
Implied Probability
79.4%
Model Edge
+1.7%
Predicted Value
2.2 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs) Over 1.5 Goals (-385)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Darcy's recent form, especially at home, indicates a strong likelihood of him snagging more than 1.5 goals against Fremantle. With an average of 3 goals per game over the last five matches, Darcy's precision in front of the big sticks at 86.1% goal accuracy boosts his scoring potential. His consistent involvement in creating scoring opportunities, averaging 6.6 score involvements and 4.8 shots at goal per game at home, further supports this bet. Facing an opponent against whom he has historically performed well, averaging 2.2 goals over the last five matchups, Darcy's current hit streak and overall goal-scoring prowess make the Over 1.5 goals bet a statistically-grounded choice for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (11 picks) 63.6% (7/11)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Aug 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs Goals 1.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
24 Aug 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Western Bulldogs Goals 1.5 Over -385 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending
18 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending
18 Jul 25 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending

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