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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Darcy is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 81%, implied 68%, edge +13.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:26AM UTC
AFL

Sam Darcy

Western Bulldogs

+13.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+13.4% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
2.2 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.4% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +13.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals81.4%68.0%1.23+13.4%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs) Over 1.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag goals, Sam Darcy stands out like a beacon in the night sky. This young gun has been lighting up the footy field, averaging a solid 2.6 goals over his last five away games. With a sharp eye for the big sticks and a goal accuracy of nearly 60%, Darcy knows how to make each shot count. Facing off against Geelong Cats, a team he's already netted an average of one goal against in their territory, Darcy seems primed to continue his scoring spree. His recent performance metrics, including 4.4 shots per game and 7.6 score involvements, indicate he's not just a goal kicker but a pivotal force in creating attacking opportunities. With a model predicting him to hit 2.2 goals, comfortably above the set line of 1.5, betting on Darcy to go Over in the goals market seems like a smart play for punters looking to ride the hot hand.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Darcy averaged 12.5 disposals, 1.8 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.5
Disposals
1.8
Goals
4.9
Marks
2.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Sam Darcy recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn13141
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS12213
18 Aug 24North Melbourne20792
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows19150
2 Aug 24Melbourne11173
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans10151
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats101211
13 Jul 24Carlton16154
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide9022
29 Jun 24North Melbourne15132
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Darcy is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.4% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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