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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Burton is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 83%, edge +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:40AM UTC
AFL

Ryan Burton

Port Adelaide

+1.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+1.0% Edge
West Coast Eagles @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 13 Jul, 6:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
19.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.3% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +1.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.3%—83.3%1.19+1.0%

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Burton (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ryan Burton is poised to shine in the upcoming home game against West Coast Eagles. With a model predicting him to secure 19.6 disposals, a 1.0% edge indicates a strong likelihood of exceeding the 14.5 line. Burton's impressive L5 stats, including averaging 21.4 disposals, 14.8 kicks, and 6.6 handballs at home, along with a solid 78.6% disposal efficiency, support this bet. His consistent performance, highlighted by a 7-game hit streak and 83.3% implied probability, further reinforces the expectation of him surpassing the set line. Trust in Burton's form and the home advantage to deliver on the 'Player Disposals Over' market bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ryan Burton averaged 17.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

17.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.4
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Ryan Burton recorded 23 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans23151
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats21163
25 Aug 24Fremantle19052
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows12032
30 May 24Carlton13031
25 May 24North Melbourne10032
19 May 24Hawthorn9046
10 May 24Geelong Cats23052
2 May 24Adelaide Crows15041
20 Apr 24Collingwood22141
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryan Burton (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Burton is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 13 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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