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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Riley Hardeman is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:05PM UTC
AFL

Riley Hardeman

North Melbourne

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -357 (1.28)
+3.9% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 3 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
82.0%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+3.9%
Predicted Value
14.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.0%78.1%1.22+3.9%

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AI Analysis

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Riley Hardeman (North Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Riley Hardeman is poised to shine in this match against the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. With a model prediction of 14.1 disposals, a solid 3.9% edge, and recent averages exceeding the 9.5 line, the Over bet seems promising. His L5 stats showcase a consistent performance, averaging 13.4 disposals in home games and 13.8 overall. Hardeman's excellent disposalefficiency of 79.9% at home and 87.9% overall further support his ability to surpass the line. Despite not having a current hit streak, his impressive 8/9 hit rate in the last nine games demonstrates his reliability. Expect Hardeman to maintain his form and surpass the 9.5 disposals mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10avg disposals recent
Season best12
Disposals last 3avg 10 · hi 12 · lo 7
12711

Riley Hardeman has a disposals high of 12 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Riley Hardeman (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Riley Hardeman is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Thursday 3 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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