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The latest Bet Better model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
AFL

Reilly O'Brien

Adelaide Crows

+2.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -250 (1.40)
+2.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
74.3%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+2.8%
Predicted Value
12.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.3%—71.4%1.35+2.8%

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AI Analysis

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Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Reilly O'Brien is poised to surpass 9.5 disposals against Collingwood based on his consistent performance. With a model predicting 12.8 disposals and a strong recent average of 10.8 disposals in home games, O'Brien's form is solid. His high disposalefficiency of 62.7% and an impressive 143.2 metres gained on average further support this bet. Additionally, his history against Collingwood shows he typically exceeds this line, averaging 10.3 disposals in the last five games against them. O'Brien's overall hit rate of 9/10 in the last ten games and a current hit streak indicate a player in form, making the Over 9.5 disposals a promising wager for this AFL matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10.9avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 10.9 · hi 15 · lo 6
9881314141511611

Reilly O'Brien has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 4 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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