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AFL

Reilly O'Brien

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: over 9.5 disposals that pays $141 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
12.8 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.3% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +3.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Reilly O'Brien
over 9.5 disposals
Disposals Over 9.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
Value call
HIGHWins about 74 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.10 Odds-244
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:06PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.3%—70.9%1.35+3.3%

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AI Analysis

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Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Reilly O'Brien is poised to shine in this matchup against Collingwood at Adelaide Oval. With a model predicting him to collect 12.8 disposals, a 3.3% edge is identified in favor of him surpassing the 9.5 disposals line set by sportsbet. His recent form, averaging 10.8 disposals in the last 5 home games, underpins this bet. Additionally, O'Brien's consistency is evident with a hit rate of 4 out of 5 home games exceeding the 9.5 mark. Facing an opponent he typically performs well against, averaging 10.3 disposals in the last 5 encounters with Collingwood, further strengthens the rationale for placing this bet on O'Brien to surpass 9.5 disposals in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Reilly O'Brien averaged 11.5 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

11.5
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Reilly O'Brien recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans11032
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide6010
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs11043
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats15017
28 Jul 24Hawthorn14053
19 Jul 24Essendon14052
13 Jul 24St Kilda13017
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions8025
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS8045
1 Jun 24Hawthorn9028
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 4 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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