Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 71%, edge +2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:01PM UTC
AFL
Reilly O'Brien
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+2.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies
@
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 74.3% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +2.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 74.3% | — | 71.4% | 1.35 | +2.8% |
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Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-250)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Reilly O'Brien is poised to surpass 9.5 disposals against Collingwood based on his consistent performance. With a model predicting 12.8 disposals and a strong recent average of 10.8 disposals in home games, O'Brien's form is solid. His high disposalefficiency of 62.7% and an impressive 143.2 metres gained on average further support this bet. Additionally, his history against Collingwood shows he typically exceeds this line, averaging 10.3 disposals in the last five games against them. O'Brien's overall hit rate of 9/10 in the last ten games and a current hit streak indicate a player in form, making the Over 9.5 disposals a promising wager for this AFL matchup.
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Season averages (2024)
Reilly O'Brien averaged 11.5 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Reilly O'Brien recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Western Bulldogs | 11 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 15 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 14 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 Jul 24 | Essendon | 14 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 13 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 13 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 29 Jun 24 | GWS GIANTS | 8 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 Jun 24 | Hawthorn | 9 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 4 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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