Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:08PM UTC
AFL

Reilly O'Brien

Adelaide Crows

+2.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -250 (1.40)
+2.8% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.3%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+2.8%
Predicted Value
12.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.3%—71.4%1.35+2.8%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Reilly O'Brien is poised to surpass 9.5 disposals against Collingwood based on his consistent performance. With a model predicting 12.8 disposals and a strong recent average of 10.8 disposals in home games, O'Brien's form is solid. His high disposalefficiency of 62.7% and an impressive 143.2 metres gained on average further support this bet. Additionally, his history against Collingwood shows he typically exceeds this line, averaging 10.3 disposals in the last five games against them. O'Brien's overall hit rate of 9/10 in the last ten games and a current hit streak indicate a player in form, making the Over 9.5 disposals a promising wager for this AFL matchup.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10.9avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 10.9 · hi 15 · lo 6
9881314141511611

Reilly O'Brien has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Reilly O'Brien is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.8% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 4 September at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks