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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 89%, edge +0.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:29PM UTC
AFL

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne

+0.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+0.0% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.3% · the book's price implies 89.3% · gap +0.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.3%89.3%1.12+0.0%

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AI Analysis

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Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Paul Curtis is on fire, snagging an average of 2.2 goals in his last five away games, including a solid 1.5 against the Western Bulldogs. His accuracy is impressive at 70%, making him a reliable goalkicker. With an average of 3.2 shots on goal and 7.6 score involvements per game, Curtis is a key offensive threat for the Kangaroos. His recent form shows consistency, hitting 7 consecutive games on the road and maintaining a perfect streak over the last four matches overall. Facing the Bulldogs again, he's poised to split the middle and bag at least one goal, making the Over 0.5 goals prop a smart bet to capitalize on Curtis' scoring prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Paul Curtis averaged 11.3 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

11.3
Disposals
1.3
Goals
3.6
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Paul Curtis recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Hawthorn9123
18 Aug 24Western Bulldogs7032
10 Aug 24West Coast Eagles15373
3 Aug 24Richmond12053
27 Jul 24Geelong Cats13116
21 Jul 24Carlton12374
13 Jul 24Sydney Swans15024
6 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS10144
29 Jun 24Western Bulldogs14235
22 Jun 24Melbourne11046
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals Pending
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals Pending

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About This Player

Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.0% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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