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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +0.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:17PM UTC
AFL

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne

+0.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+0.0% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.3%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+0.0%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.3%89.3%1.12+0.0%

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AI Analysis

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Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Paul Curtis is on fire, snagging an average of 2.2 goals in his last five away games, including a solid 1.5 against the Western Bulldogs. His accuracy is impressive at 70%, making him a reliable goalkicker. With an average of 3.2 shots on goal and 7.6 score involvements per game, Curtis is a key offensive threat for the Kangaroos. His recent form shows consistency, hitting 7 consecutive games on the road and maintaining a perfect streak over the last four matches overall. Facing the Bulldogs again, he's poised to split the middle and bag at least one goal, making the Over 0.5 goals prop a smart bet to capitalize on Curtis' scoring prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.1avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.1 · hi 3 · lo 0
0210310301

Paul Curtis has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.0% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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