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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +0.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne

+0.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12)
+0.0% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
89.3%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+0.0%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.3%89.3%1.12+0.0%

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AI Analysis

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Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a goal scorer, Paul Curtis is a reliable pick for the North Melbourne Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium. In his last five home games, Curtis has been setting the field alight with an average of 1.8 goals each match. His precision in front of the big sticks might hover around 31.8%, but his recent strike rate has been solid. Add in his knack for creating scoring opportunities with an average of 5.8 score involvements and 3.6 shots at goal per game, and you've got a player hungry to snag a goal. Facing off against Melbourne, whom he's been averaging 1.3 goals against in his last five games, Curtis is poised to split the middle and keep his scoring streak alive. Betting on Curtis to score over 0.5 goals is a bet on his consistency and ability to impact the scoreboard.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.1avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.1 · hi 3 · lo 0
0210310301

Paul Curtis has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Paul Curtis is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.0% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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