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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oskar Baker is Over 2.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 34 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 34%, implied 27%, edge +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 1:11PM UTC
AFL

Oskar Baker

Western Bulldogs

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Tackles Over 2.5 +270 (3.70) · $100→$370
+0.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
27 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 27.5% · the book's price implies 27.0% · gap +0.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles27.5%33.5%27.0%2.98+0.4%

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AI Analysis

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Oskar Baker (Western Bulldogs) Over 2.5 player_tackles_over (+270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hunting for value in the tackles market, Oskar Baker is our man for the job in the upcoming Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues showdown at Marvel Stadium. Let's dissect his recent performances to see why he's primed to surpass the 2.5 tackles line. In his last five home games, Baker has been a defensive dynamo, averaging 1.2 tackles and 0.4 tackles inside 50. Against Carlton specifically, he's maintained a steady 1.3 tackles average. Plus, his one-percenters have been a solid 1.8 per game at home, showcasing his ability to impact plays across the ground. With such consistent defensive output, Baker is poised to disrupt the Blues' forward entries and halt their momentum. Expect him to bring the heat and easily exceed the 2.5 tackles mark, making this prop bet a tantalizing prospect for footy punters.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Oskar Baker averaged 14.2 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.5 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

14.2
Disposals
0.5
Goals
5.5
Marks
0.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (29 Jun 24 vs North Melbourne), Oskar Baker recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
29 Jun 24North Melbourne7051
5 May 24Hawthorn8021
12 Apr 24Essendon16031
6 Apr 24Geelong Cats16070
31 Mar 24West Coast Eagles19071
24 Mar 24Gold Coast SUNS19390
26 Aug 23Geelong Cats16061
20 Aug 23West Coast Eagles13143
13 Aug 23Hawthorn8100
21 Jul 23Essendon12131
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Oskar Baker (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oskar Baker is Over 2.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday 16 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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