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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 81%, for a model edge of +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Nick Blakey

Sydney Swans

+0.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -435 (1.23)
+0.9% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
82.2%
Implied Probability
81.3%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
25.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.2%81.3%1.22+0.9%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) Over 20.5 Disposals (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to go over 20.5 disposals, Nick Blakey of the Sydney Swans stands out like a beacon in the night. Recently at home, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 29.6 disposals per game, well above the line. His precise foot skills have seen him kick nearly 20 times a match, with a disposal efficiency of 79.6%. Plus, he's been a magnet for the footy, racking up 5.6 intercepts on average. Facing the Adelaide Crows, who he's historically outperformed in disposals, Blakey's form is red hot. With a current hit streak of 12 at home and an overall hit rate of 12 out of 13, the stats paint a clear picture: back Blakey to not just hit 20.5, but to potentially feast on the pill.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.7avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 20.7 · hi 32 · lo 15
17182519241932152117

Nick Blakey has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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