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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:39PM UTC
AFL

Nick Blakey

Sydney Swans

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.2% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
82.2%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+0.2%
Predicted Value
25.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.2%82.0%1.22+0.2%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) Over 20.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nick Blakey, the rising star for the Sydney Swans, is poised to shine brightly in the upcoming clash against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. With a recent average of 23 disposals per game, Blakey has been a force to be reckoned with on the field. His ability to cover ground efficiently, evidenced by his 70.9% disposal efficiency and 589.6 meters gained in his last five away games, showcases his impact in transitioning the ball forward. Against St Kilda, he has maintained a solid average of 19 disposals, indicating his comfort in facing this opponent. Blakey's consistent form is underlined by his current hit streak of four games, making him a reliable choice to surpass the 20.5 disposal line. With his knack for finding possessions both in contested and uncontested situations, Blakey is primed to play a pivotal role in the Swans' midfield battle. Betting on Blakey to eclipse 20.5 disposals is not just a statistical play but a testament to his burgeoning talent and impact on the game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.7avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 20.7 · hi 32 · lo 15
17182519241932152117

Nick Blakey has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 20.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 21.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 21.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Blakey is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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