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The latest Bet Better model pick for Neil Erasmus is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +2.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Neil Erasmus

Fremantle

+2.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -204 (1.49)
+2.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 6 Sep, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
69.7%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+2.6%
Predicted Value
17.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals69.7%—67.1%1.43+2.6%

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AI Analysis

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Neil Erasmus (Fremantle) Over 14.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Neil Erasmus has been consistently exceeding 14.5 disposals, with a strong model prediction of 17.1. His recent form, especially at home, shows an average of 15.4 disposals in the last five games, with improving contested possessions and disposal efficiency. Facing Gold Coast Suns, Erasmus historically averages 16 disposals against them. With a current hit streak of 2 at home and 4 overall, Erasmus is in a good form trend. Considering his increasing involvement in play, higher disposal efficiency, and the model's edge of 2.6%, Erasmus is poised to surpass 14.5 disposals comfortably in this game at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10.2avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 10.2 · hi 18 · lo 2
161718114752913

Neil Erasmus has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Neil Erasmus (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Neil Erasmus is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 6 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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