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The latest Bet Better model pick for Neil Erasmus is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 26, 9:46AM UTC
AFL

Neil Erasmus

Fremantle

Value call

Neil Erasmus (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $138 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
17.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 53.7% · before adjusting for past results 73.3% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap -18.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%53.7%72.5%1.86+0.9%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Neil Erasmus Over 14.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions will face a tough challenge against Fremantle Dockers, especially with Neil Erasmus stepping up in the midfield. He's been racking up clearances and has shown he can really find the ball, with a strong average of disposals lately. With how well he's been playing, we think he can easily get more than 14.5 disposals in this matchup. The only risk here is that the teams are pretty evenly matched, so it might be a little tougher for Erasmus to get his touches. Still, our numbers show he's got a good chance to hit the mark. This bet seems like a solid pick for this game!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Neil Erasmus averaged 7.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

7.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
1.8
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Neil Erasmus has cleared 10.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.5100%
o11.5100%
o13.590%
o14.580%
o16.570%
o17.540%
o19.530%
o21.520%
o22.510%
o24.50%
o25.50%
o27.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Neil Erasmus is averaging 18.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.6
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs Essendon), Neil Erasmus recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
4 Aug 24Essendon13023
20 Apr 24West Coast Eagles9033
13 Apr 24Port Adelaide2010
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions5011
26 Aug 23Hawthorn7011
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide4002
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles11123
6 Aug 23Brisbane Lions18063
29 Jul 23Geelong Cats17060
22 Jul 23Sydney Swans16042
Quick answers:How many disposals does Neil Erasmus average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Neil Erasmus (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Neil Erasmus is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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