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The latest Bet Better model pick for Neil Erasmus is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 72%, edge +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 5, 5:52AM UTC
AFL

Neil Erasmus

Fremantle

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+0.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
16.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +0.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%53.5%71.9%1.87+0.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Neil Erasmus Over 13.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers take on Hawthorn Hawks, and Neil Erasmus looks set to shine in this matchup. Our numbers suggest he has a solid chance to go over 13.5 disposals. He has shown promise recently with some impressive stats, particularly when it comes to his ability to get his hands on the ball often. One thing to watch out for is how close the two sides are, which could mean the game stays tight and limits scoring opportunities. Still, with Erasmus's recent form and the way he plays, this bet feels pretty strong. Just remember, there are no guarantees in sports, so keep that in mind as you consider this pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Neil Erasmus averaged 7.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

7.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
1.8
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs Essendon), Neil Erasmus recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
4 Aug 24Essendon13023
20 Apr 24West Coast Eagles9033
13 Apr 24Port Adelaide2010
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions5011
26 Aug 23Hawthorn7011
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide4002
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles11123
6 Aug 23Brisbane Lions18063
29 Jul 23Geelong Cats17060
22 Jul 23Sydney Swans16042
Quick answers:How many disposals does Neil Erasmus average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Neil Erasmus (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Neil Erasmus is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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