Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Sellwood is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:46AM UTC
AFL

Michael Sellwood

Western Bulldogs

+0.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+0.9% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 11 Jun, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.3%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
13.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.3%71.4%1.38+0.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Michael Sellwood (Western Bulldogs) Over 10.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Michael Sellwood's recent form, it's clear he's poised to shine in the upcoming clash against the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. Sellwood has been a consistent force in his last five home games, averaging 11.8 disposals with a high disposalefficiency of 76.0%. His ability to find space and generate forward momentum, averaging 176.8 meters gained, sets him apart. With an average of 6.8 kicks and 5 handballs per game, Sellwood is actively involved in shaping his team's attacking plays. Moreover, his recent history against Adelaide, averaging 16 disposals in the last five matchups, indicates he thrives in this matchup. With a current hit streak and a solid overall hit rate, Sellwood is primed to surpass the 10.5 disposals line set by sportsbet. Betting on Sellwood to snag over 10.5 disposals seems like a smart play given his recent performances and matchup history.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Michael Sellwood - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Michael Sellwood (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Sellwood is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 11 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.