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The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Sellwood is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 49%, implied 56%, edge +15.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 4:07PM UTC
AFL

Michael Sellwood

Western Bulldogs

+15.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+15.3% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
14.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.8% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap +15.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.8%49.0%55.6%1.95+15.3%

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AI Analysis

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Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies: Michael Sellwood Over 11.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Michael Sellwood needs to record over 11.5 disposals for this bet to win tonight. He has shown some potential in his last 10 games, with a range of disposals from 0 to 3. The good news is that he's managed to hit a middle number of around 0.5, which means he can step up when needed. The Western Bulldogs have been struggling a bit, conceding over 80 points a match in their last 12 games, so there should be chances for Sellwood to get involved. However, Collingwood has also been solid, allowing 89.7 points per game lately. That makes it close, as both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. Let's see if Sellwood can find the space he needs to make it happen!

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Michael Sellwood - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Michael Sellwood - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 9.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Michael Sellwood (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Sellwood is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.3% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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