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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Kennedy is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 72%, edge +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 12:09PM UTC
AFL

Matthew Kennedy

Western Bulldogs

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+0.5% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
3.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.0% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +0.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks73.0%61.1%72.5%1.64+0.5%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Kennedy (Western Bulldogs) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dissect why backing Matthew Kennedy to hit Over 2.5 marks in the upcoming clash between the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies is a savvy play. Kennedy, a key man for the Bulldogs, has been a consistent threat in the air recently. Over his last five home games, he's been pulling in an average of 3.4 marks, with 0.8 of those inside 50 – a clear indicator of his attacking impact. Against Collingwood specifically, Kennedy maintains a steady average of 3.5 marks. His recent form showcases reliability, with an overall mark average of 2.8, including 1 mark inside 50 per game. With Kennedy's aerial prowess and the Magpies' vulnerability to giving up marks, the Over 2.5 mark line seems well within his reach. Trust in Kennedy to elevate the Bulldogs' attack and snag those crucial grabs at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Matthew Kennedy averaged 17.7 disposals, 0.7 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

17.7
Disposals
0.7
Goals
4.4
Marks
3.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Matthew Kennedy recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions5031
25 Aug 24St Kilda14052
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles23254
11 Aug 24Hawthorn330104
3 Aug 24Collingwood17034
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide13253
21 Jul 24North Melbourne16052
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs8021
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS21256
30 Jun 24Richmond21185
Quick answers:How many disposals does Matthew Kennedy average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks 2.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -111 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Matthew Kennedy (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Kennedy is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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