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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Guelfi is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +13.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Matt Guelfi

Essendon

+13.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -130 (1.77)
+13.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Wed 27 Aug, 9:20AM
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Model Probability
70.0%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+13.5%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.0%—56.5%1.43+13.5%

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AI Analysis

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Matt Guelfi (Essendon) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-130)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Guelfi is a strong bet to snag a goal in the upcoming match. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 games and facing an opponent where he also averages 1 goal, his recent form is promising. Additionally, his solid goal accuracy of 50% away from home and involvement in scoring opportunities (3.2 score involvements) indicate he is likely to impact the scoreboard. Considering his consistent performance in goals, shots at goal, and marks inside 50, Guelfi's scoring potential aligns well with the model's prediction of 0.9 goals, giving him a 13.5% edge in this market. With an implied probability of 56.5%, backing Guelfi to score anytime offers good value for this away game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1 · hi 3 · lo 0
3012211000

Matt Guelfi has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Matt Guelfi (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Guelfi is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Wednesday 27 August at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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