Logo BET BETTER PRO TERMINAL
Log In
AFL

Matt Guelfi

Essendon

+13.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -130 (1.77)
+13.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast
Wed 27 Aug, 9:20AM
Model Probability
70.0%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+13.5%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Matt Guelfi (Essendon) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-130)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Guelfi is a strong bet to snag a goal in the upcoming match. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 games and facing an opponent where he also averages 1 goal, his recent form is promising. Additionally, his solid goal accuracy of 50% away from home and involvement in scoring opportunities (3.2 score involvements) indicate he is likely to impact the scoreboard. Considering his consistent performance in goals, shots at goal, and marks inside 50, Guelfi's scoring potential aligns well with the model's prediction of 0.9 goals, giving him a 13.5% edge in this market. With an implied probability of 56.5%, backing Guelfi to score anytime offers good value for this away game.

Full AI analysis is available to subscribers

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis

Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (3 picks) 100.0% (3/3)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Aug 25 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -130 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 25 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT

Full pick history is available to subscribers

Bet Better Unlock Full History

About This Player

Matt Guelfi (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 3 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (3/3). The latest model pick for Matt Guelfi is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Wednesday 27 August at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.