Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark O'Connor is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 60%, implied 52%, edge +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 2:32AM UTC
AFL
Mark O'Connor
Geelong Cats
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+8.0% Edge
Geelong Cats
@
West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 1 Jun, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
60 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 59.8% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +8.0%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 59.8% | — | 51.8% | 1.67 | +8.0% |
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Mark O'Connor (Geelong Cats) Over 14.5 Disposals (-108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mark O'Connor is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals in the upcoming away game against the West Coast Eagles based on his recent form. With a solid average of 16.4 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he typically reaches 14 disposals, O'Connor's consistency is evident. His current hit streak and overall hit rate further support this prediction. Despite a slight variability in his stats, the model's prediction of 15.8 disposals and a favorable edge of 8.0% indicate a strong likelihood of him surpassing the 14.5 line. O'Connor's ability to contribute in both contested and uncontested possessions, coupled with his decent disposal efficiency, makes this bet on him a sensible choice.
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Season averages (2024)
Mark O'Connor averaged 11.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (29 Jun 24 vs Essendon), Mark O'Connor recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 29 Jun 24 | Essendon | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 21 Jun 24 | Carlton | 9 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 16 | 0 | 9 | 2 |
| 1 Jun 24 | Richmond | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 May 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 May 24 | Port Adelaide | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 27 Apr 24 | Carlton | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 Apr 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 Apr 24 | North Melbourne | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 |
| 6 Apr 24 | Western Bulldogs | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Mark O'Connor (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark O'Connor is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 1 June at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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