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The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Bontempelli is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +5.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:14AM UTC
AFL

Marcus Bontempelli

Western Bulldogs

+5.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -455 (1.22)
+5.9% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.9%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+5.9%
Predicted Value
28.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.9%—82.0%1.14+5.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) Over 22.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball magnets in the AFL, Marcus Bontempelli's name sits right at the top. As the Western Bulldogs gear up to face North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Bontempelli's recent form at home speaks volumes. Averaging a commanding 26.8 disposals per game over his last five home matches, he's been a midfield maestro, consistently finding teammates with precision (74.8% disposal efficiency). Against North Melbourne specifically, he's even more potent, averaging 28 disposals in their past encounters. With an average of 26.8 disposals in his pocket and the line set conservatively at 22.5, Bontempelli seems poised to eclipse that mark comfortably, especially with a recent streak of 3 hit games at home. Expect him to orchestrate play, split packs, and rack up possessions as he leads his team into battle. Snagging this bet feels almost as assured as Bontempelli splitting the middle from 50.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs North Melbourne KangaroosO 25.5 -154
23.2avg disposals L5
Home26.8vs North Melbourne27.8Season best38
O 23.560%
O 24.550%
O 25.540%
O 26.540%
O 27.540%
O 28.540%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)5 / 10 hit
35212027223326292218

Marcus Bontempelli has gone over 25.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23.2 disposals, best 38). Current line: Over 25.5 at -154.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 1.5
1.4avg goals L5
Home1.4vs North Melbourne1.6Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
0210122011

Marcus Bontempelli has gone over 1.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.4 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 25.5 Over -200 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 24.5 Over -270 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 23.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Bontempelli is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.9% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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