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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Bontempelli is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 94 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 94%, implied 88%, edge +5.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 11:38AM UTC
AFL

Marcus Bontempelli

Western Bulldogs

+5.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+5.7% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
94 in 100
Predicted
28.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 94.2% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +5.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals94.2%88.5%1.06+5.7%

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) Over 20.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfielders who know how to rack up the possessions, Marcus Bontempelli stands out like a shining star under the Melbourne night sky. With an average of 26.8 disposals in his last five home games, Bontempelli is a maestro at finding the footy in the heat of the contest. His recent form against North Melbourne has been equally impressive, averaging 28 disposals in their encounters. What's more, his ball use has been top-notch, boasting a solid 74.8% disposal efficiency at home. Couple that with his ability to cover the ground efficiently, gaining an average of 506 meters per game, and it's clear that Bontempelli is primed to not just meet but exceed the 20.5 disposal line against the Kangaroos. When it comes to banking on a player to deliver the goods, Bontempelli rarely disappoints, making him a solid pick to snag the overs in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Marcus Bontempelli averaged 25.8 disposals, 1.3 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

25.8
Disposals
1.3
Goals
4.0
Marks
5.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Marcus Bontempelli recorded 18 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn18153
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22107
18 Aug 24North Melbourne29085
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows26276
2 Aug 24Melbourne33275
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans22124
20 Jul 24Geelong Cats27025
13 Jul 24Carlton20129
6 Jul 24Port Adelaide21244
29 Jun 24North Melbourne35064
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 20.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 21.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 22.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Bontempelli is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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