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The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Bontempelli is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +6.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:16AM UTC
AFL

Marcus Bontempelli

Western Bulldogs

+6.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -588 (1.17)
+6.0% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
91.5%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+6.0%
Predicted Value
28.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.5%—85.5%1.09+6.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) Over 21.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to selecting a player prop bet, Marcus Bontempelli stands out like a beacon in the night sky. The Western Bulldogs' midfield maestro has been a prolific force on the field, consistently churning out disposals like a well-oiled machine. In his last five away games, Bontempelli has been a revelation, averaging a whopping 26.2 disposals per game, with a stellar disposal efficiency of 75.1%. Facing off against the Gold Coast Suns, who he has historically dominated with an average of 30.3 disposals in their last five encounters, Bontempelli seems poised to once again showcase his ball-winning prowess. With an implied probability of 85.5% to surpass the 21.5 disposal line, backing Bontempelli to rack up the possessions seems like a no-brainer for punters looking to cash in on his midfield mastery.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Gold Coast SUNSO 25.5 -167+8.9% edge
50%hit L10 O 25.5
26.2avg disposals L5
Away26.2vs Gold Coast SUNS29.4Season best38
O 23.580%
O 24.560%
O 25.550%
O 26.550%
O 27.550%
O 28.550%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)5 / 10 hit
35212027223326292218

Marcus Bontempelli has gone over 25.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 26.2 disposals, best 38). Current line: Over 25.5 at -167, model edge +8.9%.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Away1vs Gold Coast SUNS1.2Season best3
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
0210122011

Marcus Bontempelli has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 20.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 21.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 22.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Bontempelli is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.0% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 19 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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