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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Pedlar is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +13.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
AFL

Luke Pedlar

Adelaide Crows

+13.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -133 (1.75)
+13.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 11 Jun, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
70.7%
Implied Probability
57.1%
Model Edge
+13.6%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.7%—57.1%1.41+13.6%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-133)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to looking for a player who can snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Adelaide Crows and the Western Bulldogs, Luke Pedlar stands out. Over his last five away games, Pedlar has been averaging an impressive 1.6 goals, showcasing his ability to split the middle when given the chance. His recent form on the road, with a hit rate of 4 goals in the last 5 away games, demonstrates his knack for finding the big sticks consistently. Facing the Western Bulldogs, a team he hasn't scored against in the last five encounters, Pedlar will be hungry to break that trend and add to his goal tally. With his strong score involvements and shots at goal averaging 2.4, betting on Pedlar to go over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.5avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.5 · hi 2 · lo 0
0022000001

Luke Pedlar has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Pedlar is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 11 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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