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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Pedlar is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 57%, edge +13.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 9:18PM UTC
AFL

Luke Pedlar

Adelaide Crows

+13.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -133 (1.75) · $100→$175
+13.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 11 Jun, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.7% · the book's price implies 57.1% · gap +13.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.7%—57.1%1.41+13.6%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-133)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to looking for a player who can snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Adelaide Crows and the Western Bulldogs, Luke Pedlar stands out. Over his last five away games, Pedlar has been averaging an impressive 1.6 goals, showcasing his ability to split the middle when given the chance. His recent form on the road, with a hit rate of 4 goals in the last 5 away games, demonstrates his knack for finding the big sticks consistently. Facing the Western Bulldogs, a team he hasn't scored against in the last five encounters, Pedlar will be hungry to break that trend and add to his goal tally. With his strong score involvements and shots at goal averaging 2.4, betting on Pedlar to go over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Pedlar averaged 5.8 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

5.8
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (27 Apr 24 vs North Melbourne), Luke Pedlar recorded 1 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
27 Apr 24North Melbourne1111
29 Mar 24Fremantle4022
22 Mar 24Geelong Cats10020
16 Mar 24Gold Coast SUNS8021
26 Aug 23West Coast Eagles16033
19 Aug 23Sydney Swans12025
12 Aug 23Brisbane Lions10243
29 Jul 23Port Adelaide12242
23 Jul 23Melbourne7025
15 Jul 23GWS GIANTS17031
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Pedlar is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 11 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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