Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Pedlar is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 57%, edge +13.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 7:19AM UTC
AFL

Luke Pedlar

Adelaide Crows

+13.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -133 (1.75) · $100→$175
+13.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 11 Jun, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.7% · the book's price implies 57.1% · gap +13.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.7%57.1%1.41+13.6%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-133)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's talk Luke Pedlar. The young gun from Adelaide is on a tear lately, snagging an average of 1.6 goals per game in his last 5 away matches. With an impressive 56.7% goal accuracy and 2.4 shots at goal per game, Pedlar is a genuine scoring threat. Facing the Western Bulldogs, who he's blanked in his last 5 outings against them, Pedlar is hungry to break that drought and light up the scoreboard. Moreover, with a solid hit rate of 4 out of 5 in away games and a current 2-game scoring streak on the road, Pedlar is in fine form. Add in his consistent involvement in scores, averaging 3.8 score involvements per game, and it's clear he's in the mix whenever Adelaide attacks. With the odds favoring Pedlar to continue his scoring spree, backing him to kick over 0.5 goals seems like a smart bet for this matchup at Marvel Stadium. Keep your eyes on Pedlar to split the middle and make an impact in this clash.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Pedlar averaged 5.8 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

5.8
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (27 Apr 24 vs North Melbourne), Luke Pedlar recorded 1 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
27 Apr 24North Melbourne1111
29 Mar 24Fremantle4022
22 Mar 24Geelong Cats10020
16 Mar 24Gold Coast SUNS8021
26 Aug 23West Coast Eagles16033
19 Aug 23Sydney Swans12025
12 Aug 23Brisbane Lions10243
29 Jul 23Port Adelaide12242
23 Jul 23Melbourne7025
15 Jul 23GWS GIANTS17031
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Goals 0.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Pedlar is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 11 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.