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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Parker is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 75%, edge +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:09PM UTC
AFL

Luke Parker

North Melbourne

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+0.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Barossa Park, Lyndoch, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
23.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.3% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.3%75.2%1.33+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Parker (North Melbourne) Over 20.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, you want consistency and impact, and that's exactly what Luke Parker brings to the table. Playing at the familiar Barossa Park, Parker has been a midfield maestro for the Kangaroos. Over his last five home games, he's been averaging a whopping 26.4 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 20.5 line set for this clash against the Lions. Parker's ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with his impressive disposal efficiency of 74.0%, makes him a reliable choice to hit the Over. His recent form against Brisbane, averaging 23.3 disposals in their last five matchups, further solidifies his case. With a current hit streak of three at home and an overall hit rate of 6 out of the last 7 games, Parker is primed to continue his ball-winning ways and provide a solid return on the Over 20.5 disposals bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Parker averaged 14.1 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 10 games in 2024.

14.1
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.2
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Luke Parker recorded 14 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions14326
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8041
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS12021
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows19360
16 Aug 24Essendon15360
9 Aug 24Collingwood14223
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide11001
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19043
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions16132
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13236
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Luke Parker (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Parker is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 11 April at Barossa Park, Lyndoch. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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