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AFL

Luke McDonald

North Melbourne

Value call

Luke McDonald (North Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 13.5 disposals that pays $159 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
16.7 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.0% · the book's price implies 62.9% · gap +11.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 15 Mar, 1:10 PM AEDT
Luke McDonald
over 13.5 disposals
Disposals Over 13.5 -169 (1.59) · $100→$159
Value call
HIGHWins about 74 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.90 Odds-169
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke McDonald is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 7:19PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.0%—62.9%1.35+11.1%

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AI Analysis

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Luke McDonald (North Melbourne) Over 13.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the player disposals market in the upcoming North Melbourne Kangaroos versus Port Adelaide Power clash, Luke McDonald stands out as a prime candidate to exceed the 13.5 line. In his last five home games, McDonald has been a midfield dynamo, averaging a robust 18 disposals per outing. His ability to find the footy is underlined by his recent form against Port Adelaide, where he has notched an average of 16.7 disposals in their previous encounters. With his solid recent performances in contested possessions, kicks, and metres gained, McDonald looks poised to continue his ball-winning ways on his home turf at Marvel Stadium. Bet confidently on McDonald to rack up the possessions and lead the charge for the Kangaroos this weekend.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Luke McDonald averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.8
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Luke McDonald recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Hawthorn12033
18 Aug 24Western Bulldogs17031
10 Aug 24West Coast Eagles15060
3 Aug 24Richmond190101
27 Jul 24Geelong Cats18074
21 Jul 24Carlton11040
13 Jul 24Sydney Swans15041
6 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS18042
29 Jun 24Western Bulldogs12031
22 Jun 24Melbourne11036
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -169 ✓ HIT
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 12.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 11.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
15 Mar 26 Port Adelaide Power @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luke McDonald (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke McDonald is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 15 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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