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AFL

Luke Jackson

Fremantle

Value call

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 9.5 handballs that pays $157 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
11.2 handballs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.2% · before adjusting for past results 72.1% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap -3.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Luke Jackson
over 9.5 handballs
Handballs Over 9.5 -175 (1.57) · $100→$157
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.70 Odds-175
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 9.5 on Handballs.
On Handballs, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 64%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 6:41PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Handballs72.1%60.2%63.7%1.66+8.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Luke Jackson Over 9.5 Handballs (-175)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Luke Jackson has been playing really well, and he's getting plenty of handballs lately. He averages more than 9.5 handballs in recent games, which makes this bet look promising. Fremantle tends to get the ball into their 50 more often than Brisbane, giving Jackson more chances to rack up those handballs. However, the Brisbane Lions do win the contested ball slightly more than Fremantle, which might limit Jackson's opportunities a bit. Still, with the way he's been performing, this bet has a good chance to come through. Just keep an eye on how the game unfolds!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Jackson averaged 16.3 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.7
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Luke Jackson has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.580%
o16.560%
o18.540%
o19.530%
o20.520%
o22.510%
o23.510%
o25.50%
o26.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Luke Jackson is averaging 19.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.2
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Luke Jackson recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide13124
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS15111
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats13122
4 Aug 24Essendon10230
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles10026
21 Jul 24Melbourne13143
13 Jul 24Hawthorn20126
6 Jul 24Richmond21049
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans13143
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS7013
Quick answers:How many disposals does Luke Jackson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 9.5 Over -175 ✗ MISS
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Under -116 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals — — — Pending
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 9.5 on Handballs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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