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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Luke Jackson

Fremantle

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -256 (1.39)
+0.4% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 3:15AM
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Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+0.4%
Predicted Value
18.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%71.9%1.38+0.4%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Jackson (Fremantle) Over 15.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between Port Adelaide and Fremantle, all eyes should be on Luke Jackson for a standout performance. His recent form on the road is nothing short of impressive, averaging 16 disposals per game. Not only does he consistently hit the mark in contested possessions (8.6 avg) and disposals (16 avg), but his disposal efficiency sits at a solid 73.9%. Facing Port Adelaide, where he has historically performed even better with an average of 16.5 disposals, Jackson is poised to shine. With a hit rate of 7 out of his last 9 away games and an overall hit rate of 15 out of 18, the smart money is on Jackson to surpass the 15.5 disposal line. Get ready to watch him weave his magic through the midfield and contribute significantly to Fremantle’s play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
13.5avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 13.5 · hi 21 · lo 7
7132120131010131513

Luke Jackson has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.8avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 0.8 · hi 2 · lo 0
0101102111

Luke Jackson has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Goals Pending
10 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Goals Pending
28 Mar 26 Richmond Tigers @ Fremantle Dockers Goals Pending

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About This Player

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 18 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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