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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 70%, edge +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:28PM UTC
AFL

Luke Jackson

Fremantle

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+1.2% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.7% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +1.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.7%—70.4%1.40+1.2%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Jackson (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Luke Jackson has been a scoring machine on the road, averaging 1.6 goals in his last five away games with impeccable goal accuracy at 100%. Facing Melbourne, he's even more lethal, bagging an average of 2 goals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 7 away games and 3 overall, Jackson's form is red hot. His ability to impact the scoreboard is undeniable, as shown by his 7.8 score involvements per game. Given his consistent shot generation (1.6 shots at goal on average), backing Jackson to snag at least one goal against the Demons seems like a safe bet. With a model edge supporting the over, the smart money is on Jackson to split the middle at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Luke Jackson averaged 16.3 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.7
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Luke Jackson recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide13124
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS15111
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats13122
4 Aug 24Essendon10230
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles10026
21 Jul 24Melbourne13143
13 Jul 24Hawthorn20126
6 Jul 24Richmond21049
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans13143
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS7013
Quick answers:How many disposals does Luke Jackson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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