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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 9.5 on Handballs.
On Handballs, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 67%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 4:03AM UTC
AFL

Luke Jackson

Fremantle

Value call

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Handballs Over 9.5 that pays $149 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Handballs Over 9.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
11.2 Handballs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.1% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +5.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Handballs72.1%—67.1%1.39+5.0%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Luke Jackson Over 9.5 Handballs (-204)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Luke Jackson has been playing well lately, showing a solid ability to rack up handballs. He averages around 9.5 handballs, which is right in line with what we're betting on for this game. The stats show he has a knack for getting involved when it counts, and he's recently been above the usual mark for handball gets. Fremantle Dockers are up against Brisbane Lions, and this matchup could be competitive. The risk here is that both teams are evenly matched, which might affect how much action Jackson sees. Still, with his current form, the bet on him getting over 9.5 handballs looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Luke Jackson's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Handballs 9.5
How many disposals does Luke Jackson average?

Luke Jackson's handballs line is 9.5.

Handballs 7.5
How many disposals does Luke Jackson average?

Luke Jackson's handballs line is 7.5.

Season averages (2024)

Luke Jackson averaged 16.3 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.7
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Luke Jackson has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.580%
o16.560%
o18.540%
o19.530%
o20.520%
o22.510%
o23.510%
o25.50%
o26.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Luke Jackson is averaging 19.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.2
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Luke Jackson recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide13124
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS15111
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats13122
4 Aug 24Essendon10230
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles10026
21 Jul 24Melbourne13143
13 Jul 24Hawthorn20126
6 Jul 24Richmond21049
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans13143
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS7013
Quick answers:How many disposals does Luke Jackson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Under -116 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luke Jackson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Jackson is Over 9.5 on Handballs. The model identifies a slight edge of +5.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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