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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Ash is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 80%, for a model edge of +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
AFL

Lachie Ash

GWS GIANTS

+11.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -400 (1.25)
+11.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:35AM
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Model Probability
91.3%
Implied Probability
80.0%
Model Edge
+11.3%
Predicted Value
29.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.3%—80.0%1.10+11.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Ash (GWS GIANTS) Over 22.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

With Lachie Ash's recent form lighting up the stat sheet, it's hard to ignore the value in backing him to surpass 22.5 disposals against Fremantle at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Ash has been a midfield maestro for the Giants, averaging 28.4 disposals in his last five home games, showcasing his ability to find the ball at will. His disposal efficiency of 77.6% and impressive average of 711.2 meters gained highlight his impact and composure in possession. Facing Fremantle, against whom he's averaged 21 disposals in their last five meetings, Ash should thrive in front of the home crowd. With a stellar hit rate in recent games and an edge in disposals predicted by the model, it's a smart play to trust Ash to continue his stellar run.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 28.5
28.8avg disposals L5
Away31.4vs Essendon24.4Season best26
O 26.580%
O 27.580%
O 28.550%
O 29.540%
O 30.530%
O 31.530%
Game log vs line (O 28.5)avg 20.9 · hi 26 · lo 16
20262123222322201616

Lachie Ash has gone over 28.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 28.8 disposals, best 26).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 22.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 21.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 20.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Lachie Ash (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Ash is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 4 July at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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