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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Kelly is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 69%, implied 65%, edge +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:37PM UTC
AFL

Josh Kelly

GWS GIANTS

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -189 (1.53) · $100→$153
+3.8% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 22 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
69 in 100
Predicted
22.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 69.1% · the book's price implies 65.4% · gap +3.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals69.1%—65.4%1.45+3.8%

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AI Analysis

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Josh Kelly (GWS GIANTS) Over 19.5 Disposals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Josh Kelly is poised to shine in disposals against the Gold Coast Suns at home. With a strong L5 average of 24.6 disposals per game and facing an opponent he usually exceeds this against, averaging 25.3 disposals, the model's prediction of 22 disposals presents a solid opportunity. Kelly's exceptional recent form, especially in contested possessions and metres gained, further supports this bet. His impressive disposalefficiency of 75.0% adds reliability to his performance. Having hit 18 out of 20 home games and boasting an overall hit rate of 12 out of 14, Kelly's consistency and home advantage make the Over 19.5 disposals a compelling choice for bettors seeking a reliable player prop in this AFL matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Josh Kelly averaged 24.3 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.2 marks per game across 17 games in 2024.

24.3
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.2
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Josh Kelly recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions20042
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans27034
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs26133
17 Aug 24Fremantle22053
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions19055
29 Jun 24Adelaide Crows24244
22 Jun 24Sydney Swans23113
16 Jun 24Port Adelaide27141
11 May 24Essendon21116
4 May 24Sydney Swans24045
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Josh Kelly (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Kelly is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 22 June at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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