Jordan Croft (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-141)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jordan Croft presents a modest but genuine edge in the goals market at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. The model projects him at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 4.8% edge over the implied probability of 58.5% baked into the $1.71 price. That gap is worth taking seriously.
The home context is where Croft does his best work. Over his last five home games he's averaging 1.6 shots at goal and 3.8 score involvements per game — meaningfully higher than his overall L5 averages of 1.4 and 3.2 respectively. He's also converted 2 of his last 3 home appearances for a goal, suggesting the hit rate holds up at this venue even with a modest 20% accuracy figure. The shots volume is the key driver here — at 1.6 attempts per home game, he's regularly in a position to convert. Not a certainty, but the numbers point to a real edge at this price.