Jordan Croft (Western Bulldogs) Over 0.5 Goals (-133)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jordan Croft is a solid play to kick at least one goal against Carlton at Marvel Stadium, with the model projecting 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5 — a 6.2% edge over the implied probability of 57.1% at $1.75.
The home venue context is where this bet gets interesting. Across his last five home games, Croft is averaging 1.6 shots at goal and 0.8 marks inside 50, with 3.8 score involvements per game — all meaningfully higher than his overall L5 averages. He's converting at just 20%, which explains why the goals average sits at 0.4, but with 1.6 shots a game at home he's regularly getting his opportunities. He's also hit this line in two of his last three home outings. The model sees enough volume in his forward entries to push the projection above the line, and the home ground advantage makes this a reasonable edge worth taking.