Joe Richards (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-244)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Richards looks well-placed to clear this line with room to spare. The model projects him at 17.7 disposals against a line of 14.5, a gap of 3.2 that translates to a 2.8% edge over the implied 70.9% probability baked into the $1.41. That projection isn't built on thin air — his L5 away average sits at 14.8, right on the line, but his L5 average against St Kilda specifically lifts to 16.5, and he's hit this mark in all three of his last three away games. His away disposal mix of 9 kicks and 5.8 handballs at 71.7% efficiency shows he's moving the ball cleanly on the road, and 279.8 metres gained per game confirms he's earning his touches rather than just collecting handballs in traffic. The overall L5 of 17.8 adds further weight. A tight line against a familiar opponent with a clean recent record — the numbers support the play.