Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jason Johannisen is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 9:34AM UTC
AFL
Jason Johannisen
Western Bulldogs
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-294 (1.34) · $100→$134
+2.4% Edge
Western Bulldogs
@
Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 10 Aug, 5:15AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Implied Probability
74.6%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 77.0% | — | 74.6% | 1.30 | +2.4% |
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Jason Johannisen (Western Bulldogs) Over 14.5 Disposals (-294)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jason Johannisen is poised to excel in the upcoming away game against Melbourne. With a model-predicted 18.2 disposals and recent averages of 15.8 disposals in away games and 16 against Melbourne, Johannisen's form is consistent. His 75.8% disposal efficiency, coupled with a current hit streak of 3 in away games, enhances the likelihood of him surpassing the 14.5 disposals line. His ability to cover ground with an average of 320.4 meters gained and solid performance in contested possessions and interceptions solidify the rationale behind betting on Johannisen to exceed 14.5 disposals.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 21.4avg disposals recent
Season best31
Disposals last 10avg 21.4 · hi 31 · lo 15
Jason Johannisen has a disposals high of 31 in AFL.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jason Johannisen (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jason Johannisen is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 10 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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