Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jason Johannisen is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 77 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 77%, implied 75%, edge +2.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:57PM UTC
AFL
Jason Johannisen
Western Bulldogs
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-294 (1.34) · $100→$134
+2.4% Edge
Western Bulldogs
@
Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 10 Aug, 5:15AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
77 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 77.0% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap +2.4%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 77.0% | — | 74.6% | 1.30 | +2.4% |
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Jason Johannisen (Western Bulldogs) Over 14.5 Disposals (-294)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jason Johannisen is poised to excel in the upcoming away game against Melbourne. With a model-predicted 18.2 disposals and recent averages of 15.8 disposals in away games and 16 against Melbourne, Johannisen's form is consistent. His 75.8% disposal efficiency, coupled with a current hit streak of 3 in away games, enhances the likelihood of him surpassing the 14.5 disposals line. His ability to cover ground with an average of 320.4 meters gained and solid performance in contested possessions and interceptions solidify the rationale behind betting on Johannisen to exceed 14.5 disposals.
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Season averages (2024)
Jason Johannisen averaged 21.7 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.7 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (11 May 24 vs Richmond), Jason Johannisen recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 11 May 24 | Richmond | 16 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 5 May 24 | Hawthorn | 19 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Apr 24 | Fremantle | 19 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 Apr 24 | St Kilda | 31 | 0 | 12 | 2 |
| 12 Apr 24 | Essendon | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 6 Apr 24 | Geelong Cats | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | West Coast Eagles | 22 | 0 | 10 | 3 |
| 24 Mar 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 25 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 Mar 24 | Melbourne | 26 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
| 4 Aug 23 | Richmond | 19 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jason Johannisen (Western Bulldogs) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jason Johannisen is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 10 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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