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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Himmelberg is Under 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +7.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:29PM UTC
AFL

Harry Himmelberg

GWS GIANTS

+7.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 19.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+7.4% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 10 Aug, 3:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
60.3%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+7.4%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals60.3%—52.9%1.66+7.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Harry Himmelberg (GWS GIANTS) Under 19.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harry Himmelberg is predicted to have 18.2 disposals with a standard deviation of 5. Given his recent form, averaging 18 disposals in his last five home games and facing an opponent where he averages 16 disposals, there's a strong case for him to fall under the 19.5 line. Himmelberg's disposals are consistent, with an overall average of 20 and a 7/9 hit rate at home. With a 7.4% model edge and a reliable track record, the under on Himmelberg's disposals in a home game against North Melbourne seems a prudent bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 18.5
18.6avg disposals L5
Home19.4vs Gold Coast SUNS17.6Season best30
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.550%
O 19.520%
O 20.520%
O 21.520%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 20.4 · hi 24 · lo 15
22172021202320221524

Harry Himmelberg has gone over 18.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.6 disposals, best 30).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Harry Himmelberg (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Himmelberg is Under 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.4% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 10 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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