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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Stephens is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:02PM UTC
AFL

Dylan Stephens

North Melbourne

+2.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -244 (1.41)
+2.2% Edge
Geelong Cats @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Jul, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
73.1%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+2.2%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.1%—70.9%1.37+2.2%

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AI Analysis

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Dylan Stephens (North Melbourne) Over 14.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Dylan Stephens is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals in the upcoming game against Geelong at Marvel Stadium. Stephens' recent home form indicates an average of 21.4 disposals per game, surpassing the set line consistently. His L5 stats against Geelong at home show an average of 19 disposals, suggesting a strong performance against this opponent. With a model predicting him to reach 17.6 disposals and a 70.9% implied probability, Stephens' current form, including a 81.0% disposal efficiency, 12 disposals more than the line, and a hit rate of 12/15 on disposals in his last 15 games, further supports this bet. Expect Stephens to maintain his disposal dominance on home turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
13.1avg disposals recent
Season best21
Disposals last 10avg 13.1 · hi 21 · lo 4
101441320211771114

Dylan Stephens has a disposals high of 21 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dylan Stephens (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Stephens is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 26 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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