Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor O'Sullivan is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL
Connor O'Sullivan
Geelong Cats
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-185 (1.54)
+3.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
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Implied Probability
64.9%
Predicted Value
12.0 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 68.9% | — | 64.9% | 1.45 | +3.9% |
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Connor O'Sullivan (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-185)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Connor O'Sullivan is poised to shine in this matchup based on his recent form and historical performance against Brisbane. With a solid average of 10.2 disposals in his last five home games and an impressive 83.7% disposal efficiency, he's likely to exceed the line of 9.5 set for him. His consistency in contested possessions (4.2) and intercepts (5) further solidifies his potential to dominate this game. O'Sullivan has a strong track record against Brisbane, averaging 12 disposals in their previous encounters. His current hit rate of 13/14 and a reliable 8/9 in home games suggest he's in prime form to meet or surpass the model's prediction of 12 disposals. Betting on O'Sullivan to go over 9.5 disposals seems like a safe and lucrative choice for this game.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 11avg disposals recent
Season best11
Disposals last 1avg 11 · hi 11 · lo 11
Connor O'Sullivan has a disposals high of 11 in AFL.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Connor O'Sullivan (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor O'Sullivan is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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