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The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Idun is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 52%, for a model edge of +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 6:47AM UTC
AFL

Connor Idun

GWS GIANTS

+18.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -106 (1.94)
+18.7% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
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Model Probability
70.2%
Implied Probability
51.5%
Model Edge
+18.7%
Predicted Value
19.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.2%—51.5%1.42+18.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Connor Idun (GWS GIANTS) Under 22.5 Disposals (-106)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Connor Idun, the tenacious defender for Greater Western Sydney Giants, is poised to face the Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium. Recent form suggests he's been solid but not prolific, averaging 22 disposals in his last 5 away games. However, when facing Essendon in the last 5 matches, he's fallen slightly below that mark, averaging 18 disposals. With a disposals line set at 22.5, there's a compelling case to back Idun to stay under this threshold. His recent disposals efficiency of 84.4% and average contested possessions of 5.6 away from home signal his defensive focus, potentially limiting his attacking involvements. The odds may favor the under here, aligning with Idun's recent trends and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs EssendonO 22.5 -106+18.7% edge
21.4avg disposals L5
Away22vs Essendon20.8Season best27
O 20.550%
O 21.550%
O 22.540%
O 23.530%
O 24.520%
O 25.520%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)3 / 10 hit
24212715202318191815

Connor Idun has gone over 22.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 21.4 disposals, best 27). Current line: Over 22.5 at -106, model edge +18.7%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 22.5 Under -127 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Connor Idun (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Idun is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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