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The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Idun is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +17.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 9:51AM UTC
AFL

Connor Idun

GWS GIANTS

+17.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -114 (1.88)
+17.0% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 8:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.2%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+17.0%
Predicted Value
19.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.2%53.2%1.42+17.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Connor Idun (GWS GIANTS) Under 22.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Connor Idun hitting the Under 22.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash against Port Adelaide, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, he's been solid but not quite hitting the 22.5 threshold consistently, averaging 22.2 disposals. His recent trend shows he's more likely to fall just short of that mark. Plus, in his last five encounters against Port Adelaide, he's averaged 16.5 disposals. With his current form and historical performance against this opponent, taking the under on Idun's disposals seems like a smart play. The stats suggest he might struggle to hit that line this time around, making this bet a tantalizing prospect for footy punters looking to snag a favorable edge.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
23.4avg disposals L5
Home22.4vs Gold Coast SUNS18.4Season best27
O 21.550%
O 22.540%
O 23.540%
O 24.530%
O 25.530%
O 26.520%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)avg 20 · hi 27 · lo 15
24212715202318191815

Connor Idun has gone over 23.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23.4 disposals, best 27).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals 22.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 22.5 Under -105 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 22.5 Under -127 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Connor Idun (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Idun is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 1 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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